The Home Loan Mortgage Blog

Weekly Update - 4/30/21

April 30th, 2021 11:15 AM by T. Fanning


Hi, I hope you had a great week. 

 

Rates ended the week a bit higher from last Friday’s numbers. Next week is very active in terms of economic releases that are expected to affect mortgage rates. There is data scheduled for release each day, including Monday. The week opens and closes with extremely important reports that may cause noticeable movement in rates. April's ISM manufacturing index comes Monday while the almighty Employment report is set for Friday morning.*

 

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans; FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.hlmcolorado.com/mortgageprograms

 

As always, please let me know if I can help you, your friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!

       

Last Updated: 4/30/21

 

Friday's bond market has opened flat despite a batch of economic news that could have caused weakness. Stocks are likely helping the cause, posting losses of 170 points in the Dow and 43 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently unchanged (1.64%), but a strong bounce late yesterday should allow this morning's mortgage rates to be lower than Thursday's early pricing by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement late yesterday, you should see little change in this morning's rates.

 

March's Personal Income and Outlays data was released early this morning, revealing a 21.1% rise in income and a 4.2% increase in spending. Both readings were a bit stronger than expected, but the variance isn't significant considering the size the changes from February. The large increases are due to stimulus funds received last month that are credited as income and then were spent. Even the core inflation reading in this report that the Fed uses (PCE index) came in slightly higher. Rising income and spending (and inflation) is a concern for the bond market and mortgage rates. By theory, the headline numbers are bad news for rates. However, because the numbers are skewed from the stimulus, we haven't seen much of a reaction to the numbers.

 

The 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) was also posted early this morning. It showed a 0.9% increase that exceeded expectations of a 0.7% rise. We can consider this release to be negative for bonds and mortgage pricing since it indicates employer costs for wages and benefits rose more than predicted the first three months of the year, raising inflation concerns.

 

Today's final report was the University of Michigan's revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for April at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 88.3, indicating surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations than many had thought. Forecasts were calling for a reading of 87.0. Higher levels of confidence usually translates into stronger consumer spending and economic growth. Accordingly, this report is also unfavorable for mortgage rates.

 

Next week is very active in terms of economic releases that are expected to affect mortgage rates. There is data scheduled for release each day, including Monday. The week opens and closes with extremely important reports that may cause noticeable movement in rates. April's ISM manufacturing index comes Monday while the almighty Employment report is set for Friday morning. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

 

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
 

Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
 

This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*


*
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Posted by T. Fanning on April 30th, 2021 11:15 AM

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