May 5th, 2017 3:53 PM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 5/5/17Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected employment data. Stocks are down slightly with the Dow lower by 26 points and the Nasdaq slipping 1 point. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (2.37%), but slight gains late yesterday should keep this morning's mortgage rates very close to Thursday's early pricing.Today's release of April's Employment report did show some notable surprises. It revealed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% last month, its lowest level since May 2007, from 4.5% in March. Analysts were expecting to see an increase to 4.6%. The payroll number also came in stronger than expected at up 211,000 when 185,000 was forecasted. Both readings are bad news for bonds and mortgage rates as they show the employment sector was stronger than many had thought.The third headline number we watch is average hourly earnings. It rose 0.3% last month, as predicted. There were a couple of favorable revisions to March's numbers that may be contributing to this morning's somewhat subdued reaction to the report. The first is a downward revision to March's payroll number of 19,000 jobs (79,000 from 98,000) while the other is a 0.1% downward adjustment to the average hourly earnings reading. Those revisions mean there were even fewer jobs created in March than previously estimated and earnings were not as strong as thought. It is also possible that some traders were actually expecting to see stronger numbers for April and we are seeing some relief trading.Next week has a couple of very important reports set for release in addition to two Treasury auctions that can influence mortgage rates. The week's relevant events don't start until mid-week, so we can expect to see weekend news and stocks drive bond trading the first day or two. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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