November 30th, 2018 2:07 PM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 11/30/18Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory, testing an important resistance level. Stocks are mixed but fairly calm with the Dow down 10 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (3.01%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates almost .125 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday's early pricing.Yesterday afternoon's release of the FOMC minutes didn't reveal any major surprises but did give support to recent theories that the Fed may not be as aggressive with key short-term rates as the markets previously thought. Several Fed members indicated that key rates may be close to “neutralâ€, meaning that the economy doesn't need further help to grow nor higher rates to control growth. That is the ideal situation for the Fed, so reaching that point signals that not as many rate hikes may be coming as the markets feared. Although, there was nothing in them that derailed the consensus of another bump coming at next month's FOMC meeting. The bond market had a slight reaction to the news once the minutes were posted. However, it wasn't enough of a move to widely affect mortgage rates.There is nothing of importance set for release today. I would not be completely surprised to see bonds lose a little ground late this afternoon as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is right up against a key resistance level of 3.0%. With the moderate bond rally this week and 3.00% being tested, it is quite possible that some traders sell holdings to capture this week's profits and protect themselves from weekend news, particularly from the G20 Summit that is currently underway. That doesn't mean we will see a huge sell-off and a spike in rate though. If there is a revision, it probably will be fairly minor.Next week has a pretty busy calendar set. There is not a large number of reports set for release, but there are two highly important releases scheduled in addition to a congressional appearance by Fed Chairman Powell mid-week. Monday has one of the highly important reports scheduled- the ISM manufacturing index. Look for details on it and all of next week's events in Sunday evening's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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