August 10th, 2018 9:52 AM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 8/10/18Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory due to heavy stock selling and overseas financial concerns. The major stock indexes are in selling mode with the Dow down 202 points and the Nasdaq down 38 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32 (2.88%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Thursday's morning pricing.Yesterday's 30-year Treasury Bond auction went relatively well but not overly strong. The indicators pointed to an above average level of interest in the securities. It was not good enough to fuel a bond rally or intraday improvement to mortgage pricing. On the other hand, it was strong enough to prevent a negative reaction. The sale was a non-factor in yesterday afternoon's mortgage rates.July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 0.2% rise in both the overall and core data readings. Both readings pegged expectations, meaning inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy were not stronger than predicted. The more important core reading that excludes volatile food and energy prices moved to its highest annual rate since September 2008, supporting the Fed's theory that inflation is rising to its preferred level. Rising inflation is bad news for bonds in theory, but since we saw no surprise this morning, it did not have much of an impact on today's rates.Today's bond gains are much more a result of concerns about Turkey's financial system than anything else. There are spreading concerns that the country's banking system is in jeopardy, fueling global stock selling and creating a flight to safety scenario for bonds here. That has pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note below an important threshold of 2.90%. If events over the weekend compound those concerns, we could see this rally extend into next week.Next week brings us the release of a handful of relevant economic reports, but only one is considered to be highly important. All of the releases will take place the middle and latter days, leaving the first part of the week to be driven by weekend news and stock movement. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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