August 8th, 2025 1:37 PM by T. Fanning
Hi! Hope you’ve had a great week and kept yourself busy!
This week has been mostly calm in the markets, following last Friday’s jobs report, which caused bond yields—and mortgage rates—to drop sharply. After that big move, things have settled down. Daily changes in the market haven’t been strong enough to cause any big shifts in mortgage rates. Overall, interest rates finished the week slightly lower.
Next week could bring a lot more changes in the markets. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index will give an important update on inflation and might show how new tariffs are affecting prices. Several Federal Reserve officials are also set to speak, which could give clues about whether last week’s weaker job report has made them more open to lowering interest rates. With these events, the quiet markets we saw this week might turn more unpredictable in the days to come.
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Last Updated: 8/8/25
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory again as concerns about upcoming hurdles in the bond market continue to grow. Stocks are posting early gains with the Dow up 217 points and the Nasdaq up 132 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (4.27%), which should cause an increase of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates. If you saw an intraday increase late yesterday, you should still see a slight increase this morning.
Yesterday's 30-year Treasury Note auction went poorly with the benchmarks signaling another lackluster demand for the securities, particularly from international buyers. This follows similar results in Wednesday's 10-year Note sale and means investor appetite for long-term debt is waning. That is problematic for the bond market and mortgage rates since rates are based on long-term bonds. Unsurprisingly, the results caused a negative reaction in the bond market after the 1:00 PM ET announcement. It was enough of a move for some lenders to revise pricing slightly higher before closing, but most lenders will likely reflect that loss in this morning's rates.
There is no relevant economic data scheduled for today. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is speaking at 10:00 AM but the topic of his speech is related to banking and small business, not monetary policy or the economy. However, there is a chance of getting a related question in the Q&A part of the event. What traders are more interested in is tomorrow's speech by Fed Vice Chair Bowman in Colorado Springs. The topic of her speech is listed as Economic Outlook and Community Banking, meaning there is a much better chance of hearing something that could drive bond trading Monday morning.
Next week has three major reports scheduled that may heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets. We will get key inflation indexes Tuesday and Thursday morning, followed by consumer spending data Friday. There are also a few other less important reports that can also contribute to movement in rates. The week starts light with nothing set for Monday except maybe a reaction to Saturday's Fed speech. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would...
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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