February 13th, 2026 3:09 PM by T. Fanning
Hi! Hope you have a wonderful Valentine’s Day!
Inflation slowed in January, putting more attention on what the Federal Reserve might do next and how that could affect mortgage rates this spring. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.7% in December and the lowest since May 2025. Monthly inflation was modest, with overall prices up 0.2% and core inflation at 2.5%. Markets still expect the Fed to cut rates twice in 2026, with some investors seeing a chance of a third cut by the end of the year. Mortgage rates had a nice week, ending lower.
Next week is packed with economic reports and events that could impact mortgage rates. Markets will be closed Monday for Presidents Day, and Tuesday is pretty quiet aside from a few Fed speeches. Things pick up Wednesday, with the biggest news coming Friday when the first look at fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, are released. In between, we’ll also see several mid-level reports, more Fed speeches, another Treasury auction, and the minutes from last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting—all of which could move mortgage rates.
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