Daily Rate Lock Advisory | Home Loan Mortgage

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Unknown

None

There is no relevant economic data being released today. In fact, there are just a few scheduled events this week that may influence mortgage rates, only one of which is an economic report. There also are a couple of Treasury auctions that may come into play during afternoon hours today and/or tomorrow. The big news of the week will be the second to last FOMC meeting of the year that is expected to yield a change to short-term interest rates midweek.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

This week's scheduled activities will begin this afternoon when results of the first of two Treasury auctions will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. 5-year Notes are being sold today followed by 7-year Notes tomorrow. If these sales are met with a strong demand from investors, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading these days. This could lead to improvements in mortgage rates during early afternoon trading. A lackluster investor interest may create selling in the broader bond market and lead to slight upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index

This week’s sole relevant economic report (due to government shutdown) will come late tomorrow morning when October's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is posted. This report comes from the Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency. The index helps us gauge consumer willingness to spend by tracking consumer confidence in their own financial and employment situations. It is expected to show a minor decline from last month's 94.2 reading. That would mean surveyed consumers felt slightly worse about their own financial and employment situations than they did last month. Good news for the bond market would be a noticeable decline because waning confidence usually translates to weaker consumer spending levels, which makes up over two-thirds of our economy. Current forecasts show a reading of 94.0. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

Corporate Earnings

We are also in the middle of corporate earnings season where publicly-traded companies report their quarterly and annual results and/or projections. This week has some very big names scheduled, such as Chevron, Microsoft, Alphabet, Exxon Mobile, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. These announcements will affect stock trading much more than bonds, but a strong rally in stocks could lead to pressure in bonds that pushes mortgage pricing higher. If these earnings disappoint stock analysts, weakness in stocks may cause a flight to safety of bonds that leads to mortgage rates moving lower.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Overall, the government shutdown is making this another light week in terms of the number of economic releases and other scheduled events, but the FOMC meeting carries such a high level of importance that it is quite possible we will see a big move in the markets and mortgage rates anyhow. The most important day for rates is clearly Wednesday due to the FOMC events. The calmest day for rates could be any other day than Wednesday. If you are floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets because they may be quite active at times this week.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

None

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Consumer Confidence Index

Corporate Earnings

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Float / Lock Recommendation