Hi! Hope you have a wonderful Valentine’s Day!
Inflation slowed in January, putting more attention on what the Federal Reserve might do next and how that could affect mortgage rates this spring. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.7% in December and the lowest since May 2025. Monthly inflation was modest, with overall prices up 0.2% and core inflation at 2.5%. Markets still expect the Fed to cut rates twice in 2026, with some investors seeing a chance of a third cut by the end of the year. Mortgage rates had a nice week, ending lower.
Next week is packed with economic reports and events that could impact mortgage rates. Markets will be closed Monday for Presidents Day, and Tuesday is pretty quiet aside from a few Fed speeches. Things pick up Wednesday, with the biggest news coming Friday when the first look at fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, are released. In between, we’ll also see several mid-level reports, more Fed speeches, another Treasury auction, and the minutes from last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting—all of which could move mortgage rates.
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Recent job reports have been weaker than usual. Early data showed private hiring slowed in January, with fewer jobs added than expected, and weekly unemployment claims edged higher, though they remain low overall. This pointed to a cooling job market, and rates dipped slightly in response.
Next week has a few economic reports, but three are the most important. We’ll see December Retail Sales on Tuesday, January’s jobs report on Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The jobs report is especially important—it could push rates back to the multi-year lows we saw in January or send them up to the highest levels since December.
Hi, hope you’re having a great week!
President Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell sparked new debate about the direction of interest rates and borrowing costs. Treasury yields initially rose, pushing rates higher, but the move faded as investors weighed Warsh’s mixed stance on rates. Even with a much stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index, bonds and rates barely moved. Overall, interest rates had a good week and ended slightly lower.
Next week has limited economic news, but two key reports matter. Monday brings the ISM manufacturing report, which measures how the manufacturing sector is performing. Friday features the monthly jobs report. With the Fed meeting over, expect more comments from Fed officials during the week.
Single digit temperatures…gross! Stay warm!
This past week, markets were mixed as bonds and stocks moved back and forth. Economic reports showed steady job growth and solid economic growth, while inflation remained above the Fed’s goal, making near-term rate cuts less likely. Overall, there were no major surprises, and mortgage rates stayed mostly steady with only small changes.
Tomorrow, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index will be released, giving insight into how confident people feel about their finances and jobs. Higher confidence usually leads to more spending, which can push interest rates higher, while lower confidence is better for bonds and mortgage rates. Next week, markets will also focus on new inflation and jobs reports and any updates from the Federal Reserve, all of which could impact the U.S. economy and interest rates.
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Hello! I hope you had a great week!
This past week in the U.S. economy showed inflation cooling a bit but still staying above the Fed’s comfort level, while other data came in steady with no big surprises. Mortgage rates remain at their lowest levels since early 2023, though they did tick up slightly from last week as markets reacted to inflation news and bond market moves. Traders are still keeping a close eye on inflation and Fed signals since they play a big role in where mortgage costs head next.
Next week starts with markets closed on Monday for the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. The rest of the week is pretty quiet, with only a few reports that could impact mortgage rates. The most important one is the Fed’s preferred inflation report, which matters more to bonds and mortgage rates than any other report or the lone Treasury auction scheduled for the week.
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