TGIF, I hope you’ve had a good week.
Although the Feds raised their benchmark rate .25% this week, rates fell and ended the week lower. Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic reports and a couple of Treasury auctions that may influence mortgage rates. It starts light with nothing scheduled for Monday. None of the reports are considered key or expected to be a strong market-mover, but we will get the Fed's preferred inflation reading Friday morning. Now that the FOMC meeting is behind us and the required quiet-period has ended, we will start seeing Fed member speaking engagements again that could also have a noticeable impact on bond trading and mortgage rates.*
We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans (100% FHA financing); Conventional, FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We can also do non-traditional programs! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 3/24/23
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable economic news and overnight gains. Stocks are reacting to the same headlines in a different way. The Dow is currently down 173 points while the Nasdaq is down 65 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (3.37%), but weakness late in the day yesterday should keep this morning's mortgage rates close to Thursday's early morning levels.
February's Durable Goods Orders report was released at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It revealed a 1.0% decline in new orders for big-ticket items such as electronics, refrigerators and airplanes at U.S. factories. This was well off the increase of 1.6% that was expected, even for this report that is known to be volatile from month to month. The decline indicates weakness in the manufacturing sector that makes the report good news for bonds and mortgage rates.
In addition to this morning's economic data, the markets are also reacting to overseas concerns that Deutsche Bank may be having issues related to the recent banking crisis. Just as fears of a spreading problem appeared to be easing, a new name comes to the forefront. It will be interesting to see if this continues to be in the headlines this weekend or if other institutions come into play also.
Next week brings us a handful of relevant economic reports and a couple of Treasury auctions that may influence mortgage rates. It starts light with nothing scheduled for Monday. None of the reports are considered key or expected to be a strong market-mover, but we will get the Fed's preferred inflation reading Friday morning. Now that the FOMC meeting is behind us and the required quiet-period has ended, we will start seeing Fed member speaking engagements again that could also have a noticeable impact on bond trading and mortgage rates. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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Happy St. Patrick’s Day! I hope you have a great day and weekend!
It was a rollercoaster week for rates. Overall, rates ended lower than last Friday’s numbers. Next week only has a couple of relevant economic reports for us to watch, but there is also a Treasury auction and the second FOMC meeting of the year that will include revised economic projections from the Fed. The week starts off light with nothing of importance taking place Monday. We can expect weekend headlines, possibly regarding bank concerns, to drive trading as the new week begins.*
Last Updated: 3/17/23
Friday's bond market has opened well in positive territory to erase a good part of yesterday's midday losses. Stocks are mixed with the Dow down 145 points and the Nasdaq up 42 points. The bond market is currently up 30/32 (3.46%), but that weakness late yesterday caused widespread intraday upward revisions to mortgage rates. This morning's gains are simply offsetting that revision, to bring mortgage rates back to Thursday's early pricing.
The first of this morning's batch of economic releases was February's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It revealed that output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities was unchanged from January's level. This was softer than the 0.5% increase that was expected, hinting at a slowing manufacturing sector. That allows us to label the report favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.
March's initial Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan came at 10:00 AM ET, announced at 63.4 compared to the 67.2 that was expected. The lower reading and decline from February means surveyed consumers didn't feel as good about their own financial situations as analysts had thought. Since declining sentiment usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending that is a huge part of the U.S. economy, we can consider the report good news for mortgage rates.
Closing out this week's activities was February's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), also at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board, a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency, said the indicators fell 0.3%. These indicators attempt to predict economic activity over the next three to six months, meaning they are pointing towards a slower economy. As a sign of economic weakness, this data is also if good news for rates.
Next week only has a couple of relevant economic reports for us to watch, but there is also a Treasury auction and the second FOMC meeting of the year that will include revised economic projections from the Fed. The week starts off light with nothing of importance taking place Monday. We can expect weekend headlines, possibly regarding bank concerns, to drive trading as the new week begins. Look for details on all of next week's calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Hello, I hope you’re having a great Friday.
Rates fell hard today, due to a smaller-than-expected gain in wages. Overall, rates ended the week lower. Next week looks to be fairly busy in terms of relevant economic reports scheduled for release. It starts slow with nothing set for Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesday both bring highly important releases that have the potential to heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets. The rest of the week has a few moderately important reports for us to watch. During the week we will get consumer and producer level inflation readings, a key consumer spending report and a mixed bag of other data.*
Last Updated: 3/10/23
Friday's bond market has opened up sharply following mixed employment data that leaned mostly towards favorable for bonds. Stocks are reacting more to concerns about U.S. bank turmoil than the economic report, pushing the Dow lower 37 points and the Nasdaq down 74 points. The bond market is currently up 52/32, dropping the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield down to 3.70%. This should lead to an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .500 - .750 of a discount point if compared to Thursday's early pricing.
This morning's major economic release was February's monthly Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed the U.S. unemployment rate moved higher by 0.2% to 3.6% and 311,000 new payrolls added to the economy. The unemployment rate was expected to hold at 3.4%, making that headline good news for rates. Not so good was the second consecutive month of surprisingly strong payrolls, even though January and December's numbers were revised a little lower.
Titling the report in favor of a bond rally was the average earnings reading that rose only 0.2% when forecasts showed a 0.3% rise and some traders feared an even stronger increase. With two of the three major headline numbers considered good news for bonds, we are seeing a strong positive reaction to the report this morning.
Next week looks to be fairly busy in terms of relevant economic reports scheduled for release. It starts slow with nothing set for Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesday both bring highly important releases that have the potential to heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets. The rest of the week has a few moderately important reports for us to watch. During the week we will get consumer and producer level inflation readings, a key consumer spending report and a mixed bag of other data. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
Hi, I hope you’ve had a good week.
Rates were mixed this week with small movements. Next week is packed full of economic releases and other events that are likely to affect mortgage rates. It starts with the moderately important Factory Orders report Monday morning and closes with the almighty monthly Employment report Friday. In between there is other economic data and two days of congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Powell.*
As always, please let me know if I can help you, your friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!
Last Updated: 3/3/23
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory, extending overseas gains during overnight trading. Stocks are showing moderate gains, pushing the Dow up 37 points and the Nasdaq up 94 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32 (3.99%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
It is not a surprise that we are seeing bonds open in positive ground. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield broke above 4.00% yesterday for the first time since early November. That threshold seems to have a psychological impact on trading and analysts, where yields that high will have a strong negative impact on the economy by making corporate borrowing more expensive. Furthermore, for those investors that fear a recession is still coming, where stocks would tank, the guaranteed interest rate of Treasuries becomes more appealing. The result is a shift of funds into bonds, leading to lower yields and mortgage pricing.
We have a few Fed member speaking engagements set throughout the day that may cause a reaction in bonds. They will be watched closely for any hint of what the Fed's future plans may be regarding monetary policy and may lead to a revision in rates anytime between 11:00 AM ET and closing.
Next week is packed full of economic releases and other events that are likely to affect mortgage rates. It starts with the moderately important Factory Orders report Monday morning and closes with the almighty monthly Employment report Friday. In between there is other economic data and two days of congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Powell. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Hello,
Rates had an ugly week due to more reports indicating inflation is still high. Next week doesn't have a large number of economic reports scheduled but the list includes a couple of important releases that can heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates. Unlike most Mondays, we have an important report to start the new week with the release of January's Durable Goods Orders. Other relevant reports include the Consumer Confidence and ISM manufacturing indexes.*
Last Updated: 2/24/23
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger economic data. Stocks are reacting the same, pushing the Dow down 391 points and the Nasdaq down 200 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32 (3.93%), which will cause an increase of approximately .375 of a discount point in this morning's rates if compared to Thursday's early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement yesterday, you will likely see a little larger increase this morning than those who did not get a revision.
January's Personal Income and Outlays report was released at 8:30 AM ET, revealing a 0.6% rise in income and a 1.8% jump in spending. These readings were mixed in terms of what the bond market wanted to see. Income rose less than the 0.9% that was expected, meaning consumers had less money to spend. On the other hand, spending actually rose much more than the predicted 1.3%. What is driving this morning's bond selling is the Fed's preferred inflation index (PCE) that comes in this report. It rose 0.6% when analysts were expecting a 0.4% increase, indicating inflationary pressures were stronger than thought last month. Because bonds are very sensitive to rising inflation, we are seeing a strong negative reaction to the PCE.
Next up was January's New Home Sales report that showed a surprisingly strong 7.2% spike in sales of newly constructed homes. The number of sales touched their highest level since last March, hinting at strength in a small portion of the housing sector. While this is technically bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, it is the PCE reading that is fueling this morning's bond weakness, not this data.
Completing this week's calendar was the University of Michigan's updated Index of Consumer Sentiment for February. They announced a reading of 67.0 that is an upward revision from the preliminary reading of 66.4 from two weeks ago. The higher number is a sign that consumers are a little more confident in their own financial situations and are likely to spend more. Since stronger consumer spending fuels economic growth that make bonds less attractive to investors, we can consider this report slightly unfavorable for mortgage rates.
Next week doesn't have a large number of economic reports scheduled but the list includes a couple of important releases that can heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates. Unlike most Mondays, we have an important report to start the new week with the release of January's Durable Goods Orders. Other relevant reports include the Consumer Confidence and ISM manufacturing indexes. Look for details on next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
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