Happy Friday! Enjoy your weekend!
Mortgage markets stayed volatile this week because of mixed news about the Middle East conflict, but rates ended the week slightly lower with a small decrease from last week’s levels. Higher oil prices and government spending related to Iran are adding to inflation concerns, though slower global growth could help offset some of that pressure. The economy added a stronger-than-expected 115,000 jobs in April, unemployment stayed at 4.3%, and both the service and manufacturing sectors continued to grow, although a bit slower than expected.
Looking ahead, investors will continue watching news about the conflict in the Middle East and comments from Fed officials about future interest rates. This week’s key economic reports include home sales, inflation data like CPI and PPI, and retail sales, which are closely watched because consumer spending plays a major role in the U.S. economy.
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Happy May Day! I hope your week’s been treating you well!
The U.S. economy grew steadily this week, but the job market was a bit uneven, and inflation worries popped back up because oil prices are rising from global tensions. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same, which caused mortgage rates to tick up again after a short dip. Some Fed officials warned that the oil shock tied to the conflict with Iran makes it too early to talk about cutting rates and, if things get worse, they might even have to raise them again.
Next week is a lot quieter than this past one, with fewer big economic updates or events to watch. It starts with the Factory Orders report on Monday—which shows how much businesses are ordering goods and can hint at how strong the economy is—and wraps up Friday with a couple reports, including the big monthly jobs report. Now that the Fed’s last meeting is over, officials can speak freely again, so expect a lot of comments about the economy and policy, plus more company earnings announcements throughout the week.
Happy Friday!
Mortgage rates moved around this week as news about possible Middle East peace talks made markets jumpy, but rates still ended a bit higher. The biggest report showed consumer spending was stronger than expected—retail sales jumped 1.7% in March, the biggest gain in a year, with most categories seeing growth. Jobless claims came in low at 210,000, showing the job market is still pretty solid and companies aren’t rushing to lay people off.
Looking ahead, markets will stay focused on the conflict in the Middle East. The Fed meets Wednesday and isn’t expected to change rates, but investors will be watching for hints about how higher oil prices could impact future decisions. A few key reports are also coming: Housing Starts on Wednesday, then on Thursday both the PCE inflation index (the Fed’s preferred measure) and first-quarter GDP, which shows overall economic growth. The week wraps up Friday with the ISM manufacturing index, which measures how the factory sector is performing based on things like new orders, production, and employment.
Finally, some precipitation! Give it a couple days, we’ll be back in the 70s in no time!
Progress toward a Middle East peace deal pushed oil prices lower, helping stocks and bonds, while it was otherwise a quiet week for economic data. Producer prices, which are the costs businesses pay for materials, energy, and supplies to make goods, rose 4.0% from a year ago, mainly due to higher energy costs, but investors didn’t react much. In housing, existing home sales fell 4% in March to the lowest level since mid-2025, with prices barely up and inventory still tight. Sales expectations have been lowered, and builder confidence dropped, with more incentives and price cuts as costs rise.
Looking ahead, markets will mostly focus on the conflict in the Middle East and what Fed officials say about future interest rates. It’s a pretty light week for economic data, with the main report being Tuesday’s retail sales numbers. Since consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, retail sales are an important signal of how strong the economy is right now.
Hello! I hope all is well!
Mortgage rates eased a bit this week after climbing recently, helped in part by news of a ceasefire that reduced some global uncertainty and gave the bond market a boost. Strong economic data—especially around jobs—kept rates from falling too much, but overall there was a small step in the right direction for borrowers compared to last week’s highs.
Next week has a few economic reports coming out, but only one really carries a lot of weight for the markets. Most of the data is only moderately important, so it probably won’t move mortgage rates much. We’ll also be keeping an eye on news and any progress in Middle East peace talks. Things kick off Monday with March’s Existing Home Sales report, which gives a look at how the housing market is doing.
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