I hope you’re having a great Friday!
Rates were fairly quiet this week, ending up a tick. Inflation numbers released earlier this week were fairly close to where the market was expecting, so there were no surprises to spook interest rates. Next week has several highly important events taking place. Next week brings us little in terms of relevant economic data for the markets to digest, but we do have a highly important FOMC meeting taking place midweek. This meeting also includes revised economic projections from the Fed and a post-meeting press conference. The week starts light with nothing of importance set for Monday, meaning we can expect weekend headlines to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing that day. In addition to the FOMC meeting and related events, there are a couple of economic reports (mostly housing) and a Treasury auction scheduled.*
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Last Updated: 9/15/23
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic data and stronger economic news from overseas, particularly China. Stocks are also showing early losses with the Dow down 101 points and the Nasdaq down 144 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (4.30%), which should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point higher, partly due to weakness during afternoon trading yesterday. If you saw an upward revision before closing yesterday, you should see a smaller increase this morning.
The first of this morning's two moderately important economic releases was August's Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. It revealed a 0.4% increase in production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, exceeding forecasts of up 0.2%. The stronger output hints at strength in the manufacturing sector, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing.
September's preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan came in at 67.7. Forecasts showed 69.4 that was much closer to August's final reading. The unexpected decline means surveyed consumers felt better about their personal financial and employment situations last month than they do this month. Waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending numbers and restricts economic growth. Accordingly, we can label this report good news for mortgage rates.
Next week brings us little in terms of relevant economic data for the markets to digest, but we do have a highly important FOMC meeting taking place midweek. This meeting also includes revised economic projections from the Fed and a post-meeting press conference. The week starts light with nothing of importance set for Monday, meaning we can expect weekend headlines to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing that day. In addition to the FOMC meeting and related events, there are a couple of economic reports (mostly housing) and a Treasury auction scheduled. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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Happy Friday, I hope you’re doing well!
Rates gave back some of last week’s decrease, ending the week a bit higher. Next week has several highly important events taking place. The week starts light with Monday and Tuesday morning not having a single item that we need to be concerned with. However, activities will begin Tuesday afternoon with results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction and quickly get more relevant from there. Wednesday and Thursday bring us two key inflation readings (CPI and PPI) and an important consumer spending report.*
Last Updated: 9/8/23
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory, extending yesterday's late gains. Stocks are showing moderate gains during early trading, pushing the Dow up 57 points and the Nasdaq up 73 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (4.21%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement before closing yesterday, you should see a smaller improvement this morning.
There is nothing scheduled for today that is expected to influence mortgage rates. Bonds gained some momentum late Thursday, likely a result of maintaining their recent trading range. With little to drive trading this morning, we are seeing that positive tone carry into this morning's session. It is worth noting that this type of move is vulnerable to backtrack easily, especially right before the weekend. In other words, don't be surprised to see a minor negative move before the end of the day.
Next week has several highly important events taking place. The week starts light with Monday and Tuesday morning not having a single item that we need to be concerned with. However, activities will begin Tuesday afternoon with results of the 10-year Treasury Note auction and quickly get more relevant from there. Wednesday and Thursday bring us two key inflation readings (CPI and PPI) and an important consumer spending report. Look for details on next week's full calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
Happy 1st day of September!
Rates had a nice week, ending the week lower. Next week doesn't have any major economic releases scheduled. There are several moderately important reports that we will be watching, but none are likely to be market movers. The week starts with the markets closed Monday due to the Labor Day holiday.*
Last Updated: 9/1/23
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed results from today's highly important economic data. Stocks are reacting to the data with early gains, likely contributing to this morning's bond pressure also. The Dow is up 195 points while the Nasdaq is up 13 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (4.16%), which should cause an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point. If you saw a slight intraday improvement in pricing late yesterday, you will likely see a larger increase this morning.
August's Employment report gave us contradicting info about the labor market. Drawing plenty attention is the 0.3% jump in the unemployment rate, taking it to 3.8% when forecasts had it unchanged from July's 3.5% or possibly up 0.1% to 3.6%. This is the highest it has been since February of last year and is a sign of weakness in the employment sector. Also considered favorable for rates was the average hourly earnings reading that rose only 0.2%, falling short of the 0.3% that was expected. Weaker than expected wage growth is good news in terms of inflation and consumer spending.
The payroll number for August showed 187,000 new jobs were added to the economy. This was a little higher than the 170,000 that was expected, but downward revisions to July and June's numbers removed 110,000 jobs from previous estimates. That means the monthly increase from July to August was noticeably higher than analysts were expecting to see, taking it as a sign of recent strength in the sector. Therefore, we have to label this headline as bad news for rates.
Also posted this morning was August's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at 10:00 AM ET. It stood at 47.6, higher than the 46.6 that was predicted and up from July's 46.4. The increase means surveyed manufacturers felt business improved last month, pointing toward manufacturing growth that makes bonds less appealing to investors. As a sign of stronger economic activity, this release is also bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Bonds initially reacted to the employment report cautiously, but extended well into negative ground after this headline crossed the wires.
Next week doesn't have any major economic releases scheduled. There are several moderately important reports that we will be watching, but none are likely to be market movers. The week starts with the markets closed Monday due to the Labor Day holiday. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Hi, I hope you had a great weekend!
Rates have started the week down a tad, finally breaking the streak of weekly increases. Overall, Friday is clearly the most important day of the week due to the importance of the Employment report and ISM manufacturing index. Thursday could be active also if the PCE index within the Personal Income and Outlays report shows a surprise . There is a high probability of it being a volatile week for the markets. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.*
Last Updated: 8/28/23
Monday's bond market has opened up slightly with little to drive trading and no major weekend headlines that the markets care about. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 236 points and the Nasdaq up 78 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (4.22%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly compared to Friday's early pricing.
There is nothing of importance scheduled this morning. We do have results of today's 5-year Treasury Note auction that may come into play this afternoon. These sales don't directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sale goes poorly, meaning a weak interest in the securities, we could see broader selling in the bond market after results are announced at 1:00 PM ET. A strong demand from investors would be good news and may lead to a late improvement in mortgage pricing. This process will be repeated tomorrow afternoon when 7-year Notes are sold.
The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly and quarterly economic reports that have the potential to influence mortgage rates, some of which are considered highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. The most influential releases are scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures consumer sentiment about their own financial and employment situations, giving us an idea about consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their finances, they are more apt to spend money. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data is watched closely. A noticeable decline in confidence would indicate that surveyed consumers probably will not make a large purchase in the immediate future. The index is expected to come in at 116.5, which would be a decline from July's 117.0. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing.
Overall, Friday is clearly the most important day of the week due to the importance of the Employment report and ISM manufacturing index. Thursday could be active also if the PCE index within the Personal Income and Outlays report shows a surprise . There is a high probability of it being a volatile week for the markets. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
Hello, I hope you’re having a good week!
Rates continued their upward trend, ending the week higher. Next week doesn't have a large number of events listed that are expected to influence rates and there are no major economic releases scheduled either. Scheduled are a couple of housing related reports, a manufacturing update that carries a little more importance than the other releases and a consumer sentiment index. There also is a Treasury auction midweek and the start of the annual central banker conference in Jackson Hole, WY that includes a speech by Fed Chairman Powell late Friday morning. Unless something unexpected happens over the weekend, we can expect a slow start to the week with movement in rates picking up as it progresses.*
Last Updated: 8/18/23
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite little news to drive trading. Stocks are helping the cause with the Dow down 70 points and the Nasdaq down 134 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (4.24%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for today. However, it appears that we won't be ending the week quietly. We saw afternoon revisions to mortgage rates each day this week, meaning don't be surprised to see more today. This morning's positive open in bonds and mortgage pricing isn't a complete surprise after such an ugly week. It is common to see traders alter positions or holdings before the weekend after a volatile week. Fortunately, today's early move is positive for rates. Let's hope this afternoon brings an extension of these gains and not a reversal.
Next week doesn't have a large number of events listed that are expected to influence rates and there are no major economic releases scheduled either. Scheduled are a couple of housing related reports, a manufacturing update that carries a little more importance than the other releases and a consumer sentiment index. There also is a Treasury auction midweek and the start of the annual central banker conference in Jackson Hole, WY that includes a speech by Fed Chairman Powell late Friday morning. Unless something unexpected happens over the weekend, we can expect a slow start to the week with movement in rates picking up as it progresses. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
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