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Mortgage rates moved a little higher this week, mainly because oil prices kept rising. Two key inflation reports came out and matched expectations, so they didn’t move markets much. One of them was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures how the prices of everyday things—like food, gas, and housing—change over time. A version called Core CPI removes food and energy to give a clearer view of inflation, and it was up 2.5% from a year ago, the lowest level since 2021. Housing costs are still a big reason inflation has been slow to fall, although rent only increased 0.1% from January, the smallest jump in over three years. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, called Core PCE, was up 3.1% from a year ago, meaning inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, existing home sales rose 2% in February, but housing supply remains low at about a 3.8-month supply, which is still below the 6 months usually seen in a balanced market.
Looking ahead, investors will be watching the conflict with Iran and any updates from government officials about tariffs. The Federal Reserve also meets Wednesday, and most experts don’t expect any change to interest rates. Investors will mainly be listening for clues about how rising oil prices could affect future rate decisions. On the economic side, a new inflation report called the Producer Price Index (PPI)—which tracks changes in prices that businesses pay for goods—will also be released Wednesday.
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The U.S. labor market disappointed again in February, bringing back discussion about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000, marking the third decline in the past five months, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, showing the job market is clearly cooling. Mortgage rates moved slightly higher this week as markets reacted to rising oil prices and global tensions that renewed concerns about inflation.
Next week has several important economic reports coming out, but the biggest ones won’t be released until Wednesday and Friday morning. There are also a few moderately important reports earlier in the week, plus two auctions of long-term U.S. Treasury debt in the middle of the week that could affect interest rates during afternoon trading. Monday is very quiet with no major reports scheduled, so market movement early in the week will likely depend on weekend news—especially any headlines related to Iran.
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Just a week ago it was snowing, and now it’s hitting the mid-60s—almost 70 tomorrow! Gotta love Colorado!
It was a pretty quiet week for mortgage markets since there wasn’t much major economic news. The Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which tracks costs for businesses, came in higher than expected, but it didn’t move markets much because investors care more about consumer inflation reports. Mortgage rates dipped slightly and are now at their lowest levels since late 2022. Weekly jobless claims were lower than expected, showing employers still aren’t laying people off, even though hiring may be slowing. Meanwhile, lower rates are driving a big jump in refinance applications, but high costs and uncertainty are still holding back home purchases.
Looking ahead, investors will be watching what government leaders say about tariffs and listening for clues from the Fed about future interest rate moves. A couple of key reports are coming too: the ISM manufacturing report on Monday and the services report on Wednesday, which show how businesses are doing. The big one is Friday’s jobs report, which includes how many jobs were added, the unemployment rate, and how fast wages are growing — all important signs of how strong the economy is.
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This week’s economic data didn’t move markets much, but a Supreme Court ruling against tariffs pushed mortgage rates slightly higher. Investors worry that removing tariffs could lower government revenue and increase the deficit, which might lead to more bond supply and higher rates. Inflation is still a concern for the Fed, with Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index - a key inflation measure that tracks how prices are changing for goods and services people buy) rising 3.0% year over year in December — still above their 2% target.
Next week is much lighter than this one when it comes to important economic data. It starts with one moderately important report and ends with another key inflation reading. We’ll also be watching a couple of Treasury auctions and more speeches from Fed members.
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Inflation slowed in January, putting more attention on what the Federal Reserve might do next and how that could affect mortgage rates this spring. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 2.4% from a year ago, down from 2.7% in December and the lowest since May 2025. Monthly inflation was modest, with overall prices up 0.2% and core inflation at 2.5%. Markets still expect the Fed to cut rates twice in 2026, with some investors seeing a chance of a third cut by the end of the year. Mortgage rates had a nice week, ending lower.
Next week is packed with economic reports and events that could impact mortgage rates. Markets will be closed Monday for Presidents Day, and Tuesday is pretty quiet aside from a few Fed speeches. Things pick up Wednesday, with the biggest news coming Friday when the first look at fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, are released. In between, we’ll also see several mid-level reports, more Fed speeches, another Treasury auction, and the minutes from last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting—all of which could move mortgage rates.
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