I hope you had a great Fourth of July! Here's a quick recap of what happened in the mortgage market this week.
Mortgage markets were mostly driven by June's jobs report this week, which showed hiring slowed more than expected, pointing to a cooling labor market. While job openings remained fairly strong, fewer people were looking for work, suggesting employers are becoming more cautious about hiring. Even though the economic news generally supported lower mortgage rates, rates ended the week mixed due to end-of-quarter market activity rather than a major change in the economy.
Looking ahead, investors will be watching developments in the Middle East and any new comments from the Fed about interest rates. This week's biggest reports include inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday, Retail Sales on Thursday, and Housing Starts on Friday. These reports will give a better picture of inflation, consumer spending, and the overall health of the economy.
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Happy Independence Day weekend!
I hope you have a safe and enjoyable long weekend celebrating with family and friends. Financial markets will be closed on Friday in observance of the 4th of July. Here's a quick look at what happened in the mortgage market this week.
Looking ahead, markets will stay focused on the situation in the Middle East and any progress toward easing tensions, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials about future interest rate policy. This week also includes the release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday. On the economic calendar, we’ll get the ISM services report on Monday and existing home sales on Thursday, both of which can give a better read on the health of the economy and housing market.
Hope you've had a great week! As we wrap up another week, here's a quick look at the biggest economic news and market trends that helped shape mortgage rates.
Mortgage rates ended the week a little lower as oil prices dropped after signs of easing tensions in the Middle East helped calm inflation concerns. Most economic reports came in as expected and didn't have much impact on the markets. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, Core PCE, showed inflation is still running above its 2% goal, reminding investors that inflation remains stubborn and the Fed is likely to stay cautious.
Looking ahead, investors will be watching developments in the Middle East and any progress toward easing tensions, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials about future interest rate decisions. On the economic front, reports on job openings and consumer confidence arrive Tuesday, followed by manufacturing data Wednesday. The biggest report of the week comes Thursday with the latest jobs numbers, unemployment rate, and wage growth data, all of which can influence mortgage rates. Mortgage markets will be closed Friday in observance of the Fourth of July holiday.
Happy Friday! As we close out the week following the Juneteenth holiday, here’s a quick look at the key economic updates and market trends shaping mortgage rates right now.
Mortgage rates moved a little higher this week as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh and the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged, but their comments signaled they may keep borrowing costs higher for longer if inflation stays stubborn. That more hawkish message put some upward pressure on mortgage rates, even as economic data showed the economy continues to grow at a steady pace.
The markets are closed today for the Juneteenth holiday and will reopen Monday. Next week starts off quietly, with no major reports on Monday, but things pick up later in the week. The biggest report to watch is Personal Income and Outlays, which includes the PCE inflation data that the Fed follows closely. We'll also see a few Treasury auctions, and with the Fed meeting now behind us, Fed officials will be back in the spotlight as they share their thoughts on the economy and future rate decisions.
Hope everyone had a good week—here’s a quick look at what moved the markets and what to keep an eye on heading into next week.
Inflation was the big story this week, with the Consumer Price Index showing prices rose 4.2% from a year ago in May, while core inflation came in at 2.9%. Investors also kept a close eye on the conflict with Iran, which added uncertainty to the markets and pushed energy prices higher. Mortgage rates saw plenty of volatility as investors reacted to both the inflation data and geopolitical headlines. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped after President Trump threatened additional military action against Iran, then moved back lower after those planned strikes were called off and tensions appeared to ease. When the dust settled, mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower than where they ended last week.
For the markets, attention will likely stay focused on developments in the Middle East early in the week, as Monday and Tuesday’s economic reports are not expected to have much impact. The biggest day will be Wednesday, when a key consumer spending report is released and the Federal Reserve wraps up its meeting, including updated economic forecasts and clues about future rate policy. After that, the economic calendar is fairly quiet for the rest of the week.
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