Hi, I hope you’ve had a good week!
Fixed interest rates were down from last Friday’s numbers; ARM’s were up a bit. Next week brings us a handful of events that may influence mortgage rates. They include a couple pieces of housing data and a major consumer spending report that is released the same day as the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is nothing of importance scheduled for Monday or next Friday, leaving the middle part of the week the days we need to be concerned with.*
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As always, please let me know if I can help you, your friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!
Last Updated: 8/12/22
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite unfavorable economic news. Stocks are also looking to close the week with gains, pushing the Dow up 97 points and the Nasdaq up 94 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32 (2.85%), but heavy selling yesterday afternoon is going to cause this morning's mortgage rates to be approximately .250 of a discount point higher than Thursday's early pricing. If you saw an intraday increase before closing yesterday, you should get part of that upward move back in this morning's rates.
Yesterday's 30-year Treasury Bond auction drew a very strong demand from investors. Nearly all of the benchmarks showed a high level of interest in the sale, indicating a good appetite for long-term securities. This is good news for the overall bond market and mortgage rates. The weakness in bonds and upward revision to mortgage pricing late yesterday were not due to this auction. Bonds were already moving lower (yields higher) long before the auction results were announced at 1:00 PM ET.
Today's only economic report was the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 10:00 AM ET. It came in at 55.1, up from July's 51.5 and higher than it was expected to be. The noticeable increase means surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations than they did last month. We can consider that unfavorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising confidence usually translates into stronger consumer spending numbers that fuel economic growth.
Next week brings us a handful of events that may influence mortgage rates. They include a couple pieces of housing data and a major consumer spending report that is released the same day as the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is nothing of importance scheduled for Monday or next Friday, leaving the middle part of the week the days we need to be concerned with. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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Hello, I hope you’re having a good Friday.
The end of the week hasn’t been kind to rates, killing the downward trend. Next week does not have a high number of economic reports scheduled, but the list includes two highly influential inflation indexes. We also have two Treasury auctions that are likely to affect rates during afternoon trading midweek. Monday has nothing scheduled that we need to be concerned with, meaning we can expect weekend headlines to be the cause if there is a noticeable move in rates to start the week.*
Last Updated: 8/5/22
Friday's bond market has opened sharply lower following the release of surprisingly strong economic data. Stocks are curiously reacting negatively to the data with the Dow down 95 points and the Nasdaq down 124 points. The bond market is in a freefall during early trading, currently down 37/32 (2.82%). This should cause an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of over .125 of a percent in RATE instead of discount point.
Today's big economic release was July's Employment report at 8:30 AM ET, giving us little that can be considered good news for rates. It revealed that the U.S. unemployment rate slipped 0.1% to 3.5% last month while a whopping 528,000 new jobs were added to the economy. Forecasts were calling for an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.6% and only 250,000 new payrolls. There were also relatively minor upward revisions to June and May's payrolls.
Average earnings, which bonds are extremely sensitive to, didn't help matters either. Today's report showed a 0.5% rise when they were predicted to rise only 0.3%. The higher wages fuel inflation as workers now have more money to spend and businesses often raise the costs of their goods and services to cover the higher pay.
The surprisingly resilient employment sector is going to allow the Fed to be more aggressive with raising key short-term interest rates to slow the economy and bring inflation down. This is likely the reason for the negative reaction in stocks today. Stronger economic data tends to fuel stock gains, but in this case, the Fed's ability to be aggressive with monetary policy may restrict future corporate earnings. It is important to remember though, the Fed's actions now are going to help bring down mortgage rates in the future.
Next week does not have a high number of economic reports scheduled, but the list includes two highly influential inflation indexes. We also have two Treasury auctions that are likely to affect rates during afternoon trading midweek. Monday has nothing scheduled that we need to be concerned with, meaning we can expect weekend headlines to be the cause if there is a noticeable move in rates to start the week.
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
Happy Friday,
Although the Feds raised their benchmark rate .75%, mortgage rates reacted very favorably, ending the week lower. Next week's calendar opens Monday and closes Friday with major economic reports. We will get July's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management late Monday morning and the almighty monthly Employment report Friday morning. In between are a couple of moderately important releases also.*
Last Updated: 7/29/22
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected economic news. Stocks are responding with gains of 101 points in the Dow and 166 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (2.69%), which should erase yesterday's afternoon gains to keep this morning's mortgage rates close to Thursday's early pricing.
June's Personal Income and Outlays report was posted at 8:30 AM ET, revealing a 0.6% rise in income and a 1.1% jump in spending. Both readings were stronger than expected, indicating consumers earned more than thought (ability to spend) and actually spent more than predicted. This data is relevant because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
Another important reading in this data is the Fed's preferred inflation index referred to as the PCE. The month over month overall reading and more important core reading showed increases of 1.0% and 0.6% respectively. Both matched forecasts, but the year over year increases were higher than expected. This is what could be driving bonds into negative territory this morning since it points towards stronger than forecasted inflation.
Today's second release was the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that rose 1.3% during the April through June months. Analysts were calling for a 1.1% increase, meaning employer costs for wages and benefits rose more than many had predicted. This is also an inflation warning that forces us to label the report negative for bonds and mortgage rates.
Finishing this week's calendar was the release of July's revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 51.5 that was a bit higher than the expected 51.1, but not enough of a variance to cause any concern in the bond market. The upward revision means surveyed consumers were a little more confident in their own financial situations and are more likely to make a large purchase in the near future. While we have to say the report is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, it has not had an impact on this morning's pricing.
Next week's calendar opens Monday and closes Friday with major economic reports. We will get July's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management late Monday morning and the almighty monthly Employment report Friday morning. In between are a couple of moderately important releases also. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Hello, I hope your weekend was enjoyable!
Rates had a nice decrease this week. Other than the Jumbo 30-year fixed, rates ended lower. Next week is packed with economic data and other events that will likely affect rates. Monday is the only day without something relevant scheduled. The rest of the week's calendar includes several very important economic reports, such as Durable Goods Orders, the initial 2nd Quarter GDP reading and a benchmark inflation index that the Fed relies on. There also are a couple of less important data and Treasury auctions that may come into play. The focus point of the week is Wednesday when the Federal Reserve meets for their FOMC meeting, where we should be getting another sizable increase to key short-term interest rates in an effort to get inflation under control. Each day has multiple items scheduled for the markets to digest except Monday.*
Last Updated: 7/22/22
Friday's bond market has opened sharply higher following much weaker than expected economic data from overseas that renewed concerns about a global recession. Stocks are having a much more reserved reaction to the news with the Dow up 42 points and the Nasdaq down 79 points. The bond market is up 33/32 (2.76%), which with a nice rally yesterday afternoon should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .750 of a discount point if compared to Thursday's early pricing.
There is nothing scheduled for release today here in the U.S. that is expected to influence mortgage rates. Overnight gains that came from that favorable economic data are extending into our morning session. It is worth noting though that we do have an FOMC meeting next week that is likely to bring inflation talk back to the forefront. In other words, enjoy this morning's unexpected rally in bonds and mortgage rates, but proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate as we could see this morning's gains quickly erased next week.
Next week is packed with economic data and other events that will likely affect rates. Monday is the only day without something relevant scheduled. The rest of the week's calendar includes several very important economic reports, such as Durable Goods Orders, the initial 2nd Quarter GDP reading and a benchmark inflation index that the Fed relies on. There also are a couple of less important data and Treasury auctions that may come into play. The focus point of the week is Wednesday when the Federal Reserve meets for their FOMC meeting, where we should be getting another sizable increase to key short-term interest rates in an effort to get inflation under control. Each day has multiple items scheduled for the markets to digest except Monday.
Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Hello, I hope you had a great week and weekend!
Fixed rates had a nice decrease this week; ARM rates were slightly higher. Next week has little scheduled for release, especially if compared to this week. There are only a couple of relevant economic reports set to be posted with the majority being housing related. There is also a Treasury auction midweek that may have an influence on afternoon trading one day. We don't even have to worry about Fed speeches since they will be in their pre-FOMC meeting quiet period. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled that is likely to affect rates.*
Last Updated: 7/15/22
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite mostly unfavorable economic news and an early stock rally. The major stock indexes are responding to the data with the Dow up 501 points and the Nasdaq up 118 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (2.93%), which with gains from another mid-day rebound yesterday, should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point. If you saw an intraday improvement Thursday, you will likely see a smaller improvement in this morning's pricing.
Today's major economic release was June's Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET. The Commerce Department announced a 1.0% rise in consumer sales last month, exceeding forecasts of 0.8%. The larger rise indicates inflationary pressures haven't affected consumer demand as much as thought. Even a secondary reading that excludes more volatile and costly auto sales rose 1.0% when it was predicted to be up 0.6%. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The sign of economic strength makes long-term securities, such as mortgage bonds, less appealing to investors that leads to higher rates.
We also got a little manufacturing data with the release of June's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It showed output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities actually fell 0.2% when it was expected to rise by the same amount. This is a sign of slowing manufacturing activity and allows us to label the report favorable for mortgage pricing.
Closing out this week's calendar was the preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for July at 10:00 AM ET. The index came in at 51.1, giving us another sign that the current inflation situation isn't having as much of an impact on the consumer as expected. July's initial reading is an increase from June's 50.0, meaning surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial and employment situations this month than last month. Since rising confidence usually translates into stronger consumer spending, this report is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
Next week has little scheduled for release, especially if compared to this week. There are only a couple of relevant economic reports set to be posted with the majority being housing related. There is also a Treasury auction midweek that may have an influence on afternoon trading one day. We don't even have to worry about Fed speeches since they will be in their pre-FOMC meeting quiet period. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled that is likely to affect rates. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
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