Hello! I hope you’re having a good week and have a great Thanksgiving!
The job market surprised by adding far more jobs than expected, but at the same time the unemployment rate ticked up — showing a weird mix of strength and softness. Mortgage rates nudged up this week, and this kind of mixed data doesn’t make things any clearer. Solid job growth suggests the economy is still strong (which usually keeps rates elevated), while the rise in unemployment hints that there might be room for rates to ease. When the Fed meets, they’ll be balancing these two stories — wanting to support the softer signals without cutting rates too soon because hiring is still strong — which means mortgage rates may stay a bit uncertain until we get clearer direction.
Next week is loaded with economic reports that could move mortgage rates, including some that were delayed by the government shutdown. Monday has nothing major scheduled, so any rate changes would likely come from weekend news or stock market swings. We’ll get some older reports, like September’s inflation and retail data, plus fresher updates the Fed watches closely. It’s also a short week, with markets closed Thursday and closing early Friday.
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Hi, I hope you’ve had a good and productive week!
This week was quiet for the mortgage market, with rates barely moving and little new data to react to. The government reopening didn’t make much of a splash, and the lack of official reports has investors and the Fed still guessing about the economy. Some private data hints that hiring and holiday demand may be slowing, and doubts about a December Fed rate cut are growing, which could add pressure to interest rates. Overall, everyone’s just waiting for clearer numbers to see what comes next.
Next week is shaping up to be busy, even if the delayed reports don’t come out. Things kick off Monday morning with two speeches from top Fed officials about the economy and monetary policy. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will speak in Kansas City earlier in the day, and Governor Waller will give a talk in London later on. Both speeches are expected to get a lot of attention and could influence how bonds trade.
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Hello, happy Friday!
The government shutdown is still delaying the release of key economic data, leaving investors and policymakers in the dark about how the economy is really performing. Without those reports, one Federal Reserve member expressed concern about moving forward with any rate cuts, saying it’s risky to make big policy decisions without up-to-date information. The week ended with interest rates remaining relatively unchanged.
Next week looks quiet—no major reports due to the shutdown and nothing big from private sources. The bond market’s closed Tuesday, but two key Treasury auctions and some Fed speeches will likely guide bond trading and mortgage rates. Monday’s clear.
Happy Halloween!
This week brought a surprise for mortgage rates. Even though the Fed cut its key rate, mortgage interest rates gave back some of their earlier decreases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said another cut in December “is not a foregone conclusion,” noting there are big differences among policymakers on what to do next. That uncertainty rattled the market a bit, making investors more cautious and less confident about another rate cut this year.
Next week looks busy with reports that could affect mortgage rates. Monday brings the ISM manufacturing report, which shows how U.S. factories are doing, and Wednesday has ADP’s jobs report, which tracks private company hiring. A few other updates and Fed speeches early in the week could also move the market.
Hi,
U.S. inflation ticked up in September, but the Fed is still expected to cut rates next week. The Consumer Price Index report, delayed by the shutdown, showed prices rising modestly and slightly below what economists expected, easing concern that inflation is speeding up. Even with the small increase, the Fed seems more focused on signs the job market is weakening than pushing inflation down further. Another rate cut in December is possible but not guaranteed and will depend on new data. Rates ended the week mixed.
Next week was supposed to be packed with reports and events, but the government shutdown means most of that data won’t come out. There is still one report from the Conference Board on Tuesday that people will watch. But the main event will be the Fed meeting, which wraps up Wednesday afternoon.
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