Hello, I hope you’re having a good day!
Rates ended the week mostly flat, but next week could bring some changes. On Thursday, investors got mixed signals from the economy—inflation came in a bit higher than expected, and jobless claims reached their highest level in years. These numbers could make the Fed’s rate decisions more complicated, but markets are still expecting a cut. Morgan Stanley now predicts three rate cuts before the end of the year, which if they happen, should really help mortgage rates.
Next week’s schedule is lighter, but two events stand out: a key consumer spending report and the all-important Fed meeting. The Fed is expected to announce its first rate cut since last December and share updated forecasts on where rates could head. It promises to be an interesting and informative week for mortgage rates!
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Happy September! This year is flying by!
This week, U.S. mortgage rates fell to their lowest since October 2024 after a weaker-than-expected jobs report. The slow job growth and slightly higher unemployment have raised expectations that the Fed may cut rates, helping mortgage rates stay lower. Even so, high home prices and tight inventory keep many buyers cautious.
Next week is pretty quiet on the economic front, but a few key reports could shake up mortgage and financial markets. Two big inflation numbers on Wednesday and Thursday might give clues about what the Fed will do at next week’s FOMC meeting, and midweek Treasury auctions could also affect rates. Monday and Tuesday are slow, with no Fed speeches thanks to their pre-meeting quiet period. If the data comes in stronger than expected, it could lower the chances of a rate cut next month and nudge mortgage rates higher.
Happy Friday! I hope you have a great weekend and Labor Day!
Inflation rose in July at its fastest pace since February, driven mainly by tariffs. The increase matched forecasts but stayed above the Fed’s 2% goal, signaling ongoing price pressures. Even so, markets still expect another rate cut next month if the job market weakens further. Mortgage rates held mostly steady for the week.
Next week begins with markets closed for Labor Day and reopening Tuesday. While the calendar is light, important reports are due, including the ISM manufacturing index (a measure of factory growth or decline) and the government’s Employment Report. Both are closely watched ahead of the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting, especially since last month’s jobs data came in weaker than expected with major downward revisions.
Hello, I hope all is well!
Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech pushed mortgage rates lower, in line with market expectations after the weak August 1st jobs report. He suggested the labor market could be soft enough to allow a near-term rate cut despite uncertain inflation, sending rates on conventional ARMs, government loans, and jumbo programs to their lowest levels since October 3, 2024, while conventional fixed-rate programs remained mostly unchanged.
Next week features several economic reports, a few short-term Treasury auctions, and Fed speeches. The main focus will be a key report later in the week that the Fed uses to track inflation, which could influence their next policy move. The week begins with July’s New Home Sales report on Monday.
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Hey, I hope you have a great weekend!
Last week's U.S. economic news was a mix of different signals. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits went down a little, which suggests that the job market is still holding up. However, reports also showed that prices for producers — those who make and sell goods —unexpectedly rose, which could mean that the costs of tariffs are starting to get passed on. The stock market, however, seemed to mostly ignore this negative news and ended the week higher, with some major companies posting strong financial results. The overall mood among investors was influenced by the hope that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon to help boost the economy. Remarkedly, interest rates ended the week virtually unchanged.
Next week will be pretty calm for the economy. There are a few regular reports coming out, but they aren't super important. What will probably get everyone's attention are two events concerning the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed will release the notes from their last meeting, explaining why certain actions (or inactions) were taken. On Friday, Chairman Powell is giving a speech at a special meeting. What he says could give us hints about what the Fed will do next, and that's what people will be watching most closely.
We offer traditional Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo. Some of the other programs we offer include: First-time Homebuyer loans; HomePossible and HomeReady programs; Custom term loans; HomeStyle and FHA 203k renovation financing; Construction financing; Chenoa Fund loans (100% FHA financing); Conventional, FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm loans; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Modular and manufactured home financing; 10% down Jumbo loans; DSCR loans; Bank Statement loans; Asset-based loans; Non-Warrantable Condos; Interest Only loans; Lot loans; Second mortgages (fixed or HELOC) on primary, second and non-owner occupied residences; Reverse mortgages; and more! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 8/15/25
Friday's bond market has opened in negative following mixed economic news. Stocks are fairly calm with the Dow up 87 points and the Nasdaq down 40 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.29%), which with yesterday's late losses should cause an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
The first of this morning's three economic reports was July's Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It revealed a 0.5% rise in consumer spending following June's upwardly revised 0.9% increase. If more costly and volatile auto transactions are excluded, sales rose 0.3%. Both headline numbers pegged forecasts, but both were also revised higher for June by 0.3%. These numbers mean consumers are continuing to spend money, fueling economic growth. They aren't strong enough to alter the likelihood of the Fed cutting key rates next month, but could play a role in the Fed's debate process by supporting the theory the economy is still strengthening despite tariffs and where key rates currently are. Cutting rates when the economy is growing on its own raises the threat of inflation flaring.
July's Industrial Production report was posted at 9:15 AM ET this morning, showing a 0.1% decline in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was a bit weaker than expected as market participants predicted production would be unchanged from June's level. Because this was just a minor variance in a moderately relevant report, the news had had little impact on this morning's trading.
Closing this week's calendar was August's preliminary version of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 58.6 that was a decline from last month's 61.7 and well below forecasts of 62.2. The lower reading means surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations this month than last month. That is favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending numbers in the future.
Next week doesn't have any highly important data scheduled like some of this week's reports. There are only three monthly economic reports set for release and they are all considered to be moderately important at best. In addition to the data, we also have a Treasury auction that may come into play one afternoon. Likely to drive trading the most next week are a couple of Fed-related events, which include the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting Wednesday and a speech by Chairman Powell at the annual Fed Jackson Hole conference Friday. Monday has nothing of importance scheduled, leaving weekend headlines to influence rates as the week begins. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
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