Happy Friday!
Mortgage rates moved around this week as news about possible Middle East peace talks made markets jumpy, but rates still ended a bit higher. The biggest report showed consumer spending was stronger than expected—retail sales jumped 1.7% in March, the biggest gain in a year, with most categories seeing growth. Jobless claims came in low at 210,000, showing the job market is still pretty solid and companies aren’t rushing to lay people off.
Looking ahead, markets will stay focused on the conflict in the Middle East. The Fed meets Wednesday and isn’t expected to change rates, but investors will be watching for hints about how higher oil prices could impact future decisions. A few key reports are also coming: Housing Starts on Wednesday, then on Thursday both the PCE inflation index (the Fed’s preferred measure) and first-quarter GDP, which shows overall economic growth. The week wraps up Friday with the ISM manufacturing index, which measures how the factory sector is performing based on things like new orders, production, and employment.
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Progress toward a Middle East peace deal pushed oil prices lower, helping stocks and bonds, while it was otherwise a quiet week for economic data. Producer prices, which are the costs businesses pay for materials, energy, and supplies to make goods, rose 4.0% from a year ago, mainly due to higher energy costs, but investors didn’t react much. In housing, existing home sales fell 4% in March to the lowest level since mid-2025, with prices barely up and inventory still tight. Sales expectations have been lowered, and builder confidence dropped, with more incentives and price cuts as costs rise.
Looking ahead, markets will mostly focus on the conflict in the Middle East and what Fed officials say about future interest rates. It’s a pretty light week for economic data, with the main report being Tuesday’s retail sales numbers. Since consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, retail sales are an important signal of how strong the economy is right now.
Hello! I hope all is well!
Mortgage rates eased a bit this week after climbing recently, helped in part by news of a ceasefire that reduced some global uncertainty and gave the bond market a boost. Strong economic data—especially around jobs—kept rates from falling too much, but overall there was a small step in the right direction for borrowers compared to last week’s highs.
Next week has a few economic reports coming out, but only one really carries a lot of weight for the markets. Most of the data is only moderately important, so it probably won’t move mortgage rates much. We’ll also be keeping an eye on news and any progress in Middle East peace talks. Things kick off Monday with March’s Existing Home Sales report, which gives a look at how the housing market is doing.
Happy Good Friday! I hope you have a great day and Easter!
Oil prices were the main driver of the market, and some hope that Middle East tensions could ease helped bonds a bit. Strong economic data kept rates from dropping too much, but this week's decrease made a small dent in the last few week's upward trend. The job market was strong, with 178,000 new jobs in March—much higher than the 60,000 expected—partly from last month’s weather- and strike-related losses returning. Unemployment fell to 4.3%, and wage growth slowed slightly. Manufacturing is picking up, hitting its highest level since 2022, likely helped by higher tariffs, and consumer spending stayed solid, with retail sales up 0.6% in February, showing the economy is still holding up well.
Looking ahead, the focus will stay on the conflict in the Middle East, since that can quickly impact markets. Investors will also be watching what Fed officials say about future rate decisions. On the economic side, the ISM services report comes out Monday—it measures how businesses like restaurants, healthcare, and banking are doing, and anything above 50 means that part of the economy is growing. Later in the week, we’ll get two key inflation reports because of delays from the government shutdown—the PCE index on Thursday, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and tracks how prices change for goods and services people buy, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, which looks at the cost of everyday items like food, gas, and housing. These reports should give a clearer picture of where inflation is headed.
TGIF!
Mortgage rates kept climbing this week, continuing their upward trend, mostly due to changes in oil prices and a lack of major economic news. New unemployment claims came in at 210,000, right in line with expectations. Overall, that’s much lower than during the early pandemic and similar to the strong job market in 2019. These weekly jobless claims matter because they give a quick snapshot of how the job market is doing.
Looking ahead, people will be watching the conflict in the Middle East, along with what Fed officials say about future interest rates and what the government says about tariffs. This week also brings several important reports, including job openings and consumer confidence on Tuesday, a manufacturing update on Wednesday, and a services report on Friday. The biggest update is Friday’s jobs report, which shows how many jobs were added, the unemployment rate, and how fast wages are growing.
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