Hey, I hope you had a great Christmas!
This week’s economic news was mixed. New GDP data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected, helped by strong spending and exports, but consumers are feeling less confident as worries about prices and jobs linger. The job market remains soft despite a small dip in unemployment claims, and while stocks stayed strong and near record highs, investors are still watching inflation and the Fed closely.
Next week is another short holiday week, and there’s not much new for the markets to react to. The main things to watch are the Fed meeting minutes on Tuesday afternoon and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday morning. Bonds will close early on Wednesday, while stocks will trade a full day.
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Next Hello Everyone!
Just a quick note to say thank you for a great year! I sincerely appreciate everything! ?
Wishing you a Merry Christmas ???? and happy holidays ??? Hope the season brings good vibes, cozy moments ?, and time with the people who matter most ??
Warm holiday wishes,
T.
Happy Friday! I hope you have a great weekend!
On Tuesday, the November jobs report looked slightly better than expected at first, but earlier months were revised lower by 33,000 jobs, and the first October report showed a loss of 105,000 jobs. Most of those losses came from federal government jobs tied to the DOGE deferred resignation program. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.6%, making this a weak overall jobs report. On Thursday, the CPI inflation report showed prices increased just 0.02% over the two months from September to November, which was lower than expected and helped ease pressure on interest rates. Overall though, rates ticked up to end the week.
Next week will be short because of the Christmas holiday. A few economic reports are coming out, mostly ones delayed by the government shutdown. Some are usually important, but the data is a bit old now. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that could affect bonds and mortgage rates later in the day. Everything happens Tuesday and Wednesday, with nothing to watch on Monday or Friday.
Hello, I hope you’re having a great Friday!
This past week’s economic news was mostly focused on the Federal Reserve. The Fed cut its rate by a quarter point, but the market had already expected that move, so it didn’t make much of a splash. The bigger surprise was the Fed hinting that they may be done cutting rates for a while, which the market didn’t love. In the end, mortgage rates stayed flat, with only minor movements.
Next week is going to be pretty busy with important economic updates that could affect interest rates. We’ve got the long-delayed jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), both of which can really move the markets. There’s also a Treasury auction in the middle of the week. Monday is quiet for data, but we’ll still be paying attention to two Fed speeches.
Rates wrapped up the week mixed, showing just slight movement.
Happy December! It’s hard to believe the year is almost over!
The Federal Reserve meets next week, and recent inflation data gives it a bit more room to cut rates. Prices are slowly moving toward their 2% goal. The Fed’s main inflation measure—the PCE index, which tracks everyday price increases—rose only 0.2% in September. Because of that, markets expect a small 0.25% rate cut. The bottom line: inflation isn’t fully under control yet, but it’s no longer climbing, which should help interest rates keep trending downwards.
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