Happy Friday! I hope you had an awesome Fourth of July and a great week!
Last week, the economy stayed strong despite growing trade tensions. The job market remained solid, with fewer people filing for unemployment and 147,000 new jobs added. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve will keep fighting inflation and won’t lower interest rates because of political pressure.
This week, interest rates saw some moderate movement, mostly for the better. The 30-year fixed conventional rate rose slightly.
Next week will be much busier, with seven important economic reports, including two key inflation indexes and a consumer spending update that could impact mortgage rates. Several Fed members are also scheduled to speak before entering a two-week quiet period ahead of their next meeting. Each day has events to watch—except for Monday, which is the only quiet day.
We offer traditional Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo. Some of the other programs we offer include: First-time Homebuyer loans; HomePossible and HomeReady programs; Custom term loans; HomeStyle and FHA 203k renovation financing; Construction financing; Chenoa Fund loans (100% FHA financing); Conventional, FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm loans; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; Modular and manufactured home financing; 10% down Jumbo loans; DSCR loans; Bank Statement loans; Asset-based loans; Non-Warrantable Condos; Interest Only loans; Lot loans; Second mortgages (fixed or HELOC) on primary, second and non-owner occupied residences; Reverse mortgages; and more! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 7/11/25
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory again as the markets react to new tariff headlines. Stocks are following suit, pushing the Dow lower by 258 points and the Nasdaq down 44 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32 (4.40%), which should cause an increase of approximately .125 -.250 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates.
Yesterday's 30-year Treasury Bond auction wasn't as successful as Wednesday's 10-year Note sale. The benchmarks pointed to investor interest that was a little below average of other recent sales. Fortunately, bonds had little reaction to the 1:00 PM ET results announcement. The broader bond market did improve slightly during late afternoon trading, but it doesn't appear to be due to the auction results. Accordingly, we are labeling the auction as neutral for mortgage rates.
There isn't anything scheduled for today in terms of economic releases or other relevant events. However, President Trump's surprise announcement of a 35% tariff on most Canadian goods coming into the U.S. on top of other related announcements over the past 48 hours has brought that topic back into the forefront for bond traders. There have been reports of the cost of goods starting to rise as a result of this year's tariffs, so the fresh duties that were announced this week are fueling inflation concerns again in the bond market. Whether or not they will remain in place remains to be seen, but with such a light economic calendar this week, the new tariff headlines are driving bond trading this morning.
For as little as there was scheduled this week, next week is equally as busy. There appears to be seven monthly economic reports set for release, including two key inflation indexes and a consumer spending report that are all considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. The week also has a slew of Fed member speeches, the last before they enter their two-week pre-FOMC quiet period. Each day has multiple events listed that we will be watching except for Monday, which is the only day without something scheduled that may affect rates. Look for details on next week's calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
Company NMLS ID: 479289 | LO NMLS: 208694
CO License: 100008854
FL Company License: MBR4416 | FL License: LO89221
Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate
Happy Thursday! This week’s update is going out a day earlier than normal due to the Independence Day holiday. Have a great and safe 4th!
June’s Employment Report showed a stronger-than-expected job market, with unemployment falling to 4.1% and 147,000 new jobs added—well above predictions. While wage growth was slightly weaker, helping bonds a bit, it wasn’t enough to outweigh the strong jobs data. This likely means the Fed won’t cut interest rates at their upcoming meeting, since the economy doesn’t seem to need support right now. That delay could push mortgage rates higher this summer. Other reports also showed economic strength, including fewer unemployment claims, a sharp rise in factory orders, and growth in the service sector—all signs of a healthy economy, which usually leads to higher rates.
Interest rates wrapped up the week with mixed results—30-year fixed conventional programs saw a modest improvement, while rates for other loan types moved higher.
Next week, a few important economic reports could affect mortgage rates. On Tuesday, we'll get a report on small business optimism and consumer credit, which show how confident business owners feel and how much people are borrowing. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from their last meeting—this could give hints about whether they're planning to cut interest rates soon. On Thursday, jobless claims will show how the job market is doing, and a few Fed officials will speak, which could also influence market expectations. Finally, on Friday, the federal budget data comes out. If these reports show the economy is slowing or inflation is under control, mortgage rates could drop. But if they show strong growth or high inflation, rates may go up.
Last Updated: 7/3/25
Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory following a batch of mostly unfavorable economic news. Stocks are reacting to the same data, pushing the Dow higher by 290 points and the Nasdaq up 178 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (4.33%), which should cause an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
Today's big news was the release of June's Employment report that was posted this morning instead of the traditional Friday release because of tomorrow's holiday. The report indicates the employment sector is stronger than expected and again gave us reason to not rely on the monthly ADP report as a gauge. June's report revealed the U.S. unemployment rate slipped 0.1% from May's 4.2% when it was expected to rise to 4.3%. It also showed 147,000 new jobs were added to the economy, exceeding forecasts of 100,000 by a pretty hefty margin.
The report did have a bit of good news for bonds though. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.2% last month while year-over-year they rose 3.7%. Both increases were softer than forecasts of 0.3% and 3.8% respectively. Bonds tend to be more sensitive to the earnings data than stocks, but the other headline numbers are too strong for these readings to offset the negative reaction.
Overall, this data points to a strengthening employment sector, not weakness. It likely all but eliminates the possibility of the Fed cutting key rates at their FOMC meeting at the end of this month. The Fed's two mandates are to control inflation and help maximize employment. This is why we often hear Fed speakers reference the employment sector and inflation. The fact employment is clearly not crumbling at this point undermines the theory that the Fed needs to start cutting short-term rates to support the sector. It more or less buys them more time to see how tariffs and other policies will affect inflation. Making a move now that is intended to boost economic growth when employment activity is stable runs the risk of fueling higher inflation in the future. Therefore, it is highly unlikely they will make a move at this month's meeting, opting for at least September's FOMC meeting before acting. Unfortunately, that probably will contribute to higher mortgage rates this summer.
Last week's unemployment update also gave us a sign of a stronger employment sector by showing 233,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made during the week. Analysts were expecting to see an increase from the previous week's revised 237,000, not a lower number. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the sector, so good news for rates would have been an increase in new filings.
The third economic release of the morning was May's Factory Orders report at 10:00 AM ET. The Census Bureau announced an 8.2% increase in new orders at U.S. factories for durable and non-durable goods. Despite being a sizable jump, it wasn't far from the 8.0% that was predicted. It is a sign of strength in the manufacturing sector, but was expected due to the large decline in April's orders. In other words, this report has had almost no impact on this morning's mortgage rates.
This week's final piece of data was June's service index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). They announced a reading of 50.8 that was higher than May's 49.9 and forecasts of 50.5. The increase means more surveyed service sector business executives felt business conditions improved last month than did in May. More importantly, it moved back above the important threshold of 50.5 that signals growth in the sector. As a sign of strength in the economy, this report is also bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day holiday and will reopen for regular trading Monday. Stocks will close at 1:00 PM and also be closed tomorrow. These holiday hours sometimes create pressure in the bond market as traders look to protect themselves while the U.S. markets are closed for the extended weekend. This may lead to another small increase in mortgage pricing later today.
Since the markets are closed tomorrow and no relevant economic reports are being released, there will not be an update to this report until Sunday evening's weekly preview. We would like to take this opportunity to wish you a safe and wonderful holiday weekend!
Hi there, hope all is going great with you!
Even though inflation has slowed, prices may rise soon due to new tariffs. Companies like Nike and Walmart warned they might raise prices, as many businesses have been covering tariff costs themselves, which hurts profits and could lead to job cuts. Experts say the full impact of tariffs will likely show up later this summer. Recent data shows the economy is losing momentum, keeping hopes alive for a possible Fed rate cut in July—though the Fed is staying cautious. Chair Jerome Powell said they’ll wait to see how things develop, while President Trump continues to push for deep rate cuts and has criticized Powell. In May, food prices rose slightly, energy prices fell, and most inflation came from higher service costs. Interest rates had a strong week, with noticeable declines across the board.
Next week has a few key economic reports, including jobs data and the ISM index, all packed into three days due to the July 4th holiday. Fed Chair Powell will also speak Tuesday in Portugal.
Last Updated: 6/27/25
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following stronger than expected inflation data. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 319 points and the Nasdaq up 112 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (4.27%), reversing most of yesterday's late rally. This should leave this morning's mortgage rates slightly lower than Thursday's early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement yesterday afternoon, you should see an increase this morning.
Yesterday's 7-year Treasury Note auction followed suit of its' sister sale from Wednesday afternoon by drawing mediocre interest at best. The benchmarks pointed to another below-average demand for the securities compared to other recent sales. As with the 5-year Note sale, the results failed to derail afternoon strength in bonds, allowing many lenders to issue an intraday improvement in rates before the end of the day.
Today's big news was the release May's Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. However, the readings in title aren't what make this report so important to the bond market. It is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes in the report that draw the most attention because the Fed relies heavily on them as their preferred inflation gauges. The overall PCE matched expectations at up 0.1% last month, but the more important core reading rose 0.2% when forecasts had it up only 0.1%.
Results were similar on a year-over-year basis with the overall PCE showing no surprise at a 2.3% annual rate and the core reading coming in at a stronger than thought 2.7% annual pace. The core PCE readings show inflation was slightly stronger than expected last month and over the past year, making this portion of the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. It may also prevent the Fed from cutting key short-term rates at next month's FOMC meeting.
The other headline numbers in the report were good news for the bond and mortgage markets. Unfortunately, the inflation data carries much more significance in the markets. Personal income was expected to rise 0.3%, but actually declined 0.4%, meaning consumers had less money to spend than they did in April. Not surprisingly, with income falling last month spending did so also. The spending reading was down 0.1%, falling short of the 0.1% increase that was expected. While these numbers were favorable for rates, the stronger inflation readings cause us to label the report slightly negative for mortgage pricing.
The University of Michigan gave us their revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for June at 10:00 AM ET this morning with an announcement that it stood at 60.7. This was a tad higher than the 60.5 estimate from earlier this month. The higher reading means surveyed consumers felt a little better about their own financial situations than previously thought. Rising confidence usually translates into stronger consumer spending that fuels economic growth. However, this was a minor variance and not enough to cause much concern. Bonds are reacting to the other data and influences this morning, not this report.
Next week doesn't have a large number of economic reports set for release, but most of what is scheduled is considered to be important to the financial and mortgage markets. They include the new month reports such as the ISM manufacturing index, the ADP private-sector employment data and the almighty monthly governmental Employment report. There is nothing scheduled for Monday, leaving everything to be released over just three days due to the Independence Day holiday next Friday. In addition to the data, Fed Chairman Powell is participating in a public panel discussion about monetary and banking policy in Portugal Tuesday morning. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Lock if my closing were taking place 21 and 60 days…Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
Happy Friday, I hope you have a good weekend!
This week, US economic news showed a mixed bag. Inflation slowed down in May, which is good news for the Federal Reserve and could lead to interest rate cuts. However, retail sales were weaker, suggesting consumers are spending less, and the job market is cooling slightly. Manufacturing also continues to struggle. So, while inflation is improving, there are signs the economy is slowing. Rates ended the week slightly higher.
Next week, mortgage rates could shift based on a few key factors: upcoming economic reports like May's home sales and Friday's inflation update, along with speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other Fed officials, whose comments can sway the bond market.
As always, please let me know if I can help you, your friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!
Last Updated: 6/20/25
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory, extending Wednesday's post-FOMC weakness. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 131 points and the Nasdaq up 36 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (4.41%), which should cause an increase in this morning's rates of approximately .125 of a discount point if compared to Wednesday's early pricing. The financial markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday.
This week's economic calendar concluded late this morning with the release of May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). The Conference Board announced a decline of 0.1% in the indicators, meaning they are predicting modestly slower economic activity over the next few months. This matched what analysts were expecting. However, a 0.4% downward revision to April's reading allows us to label the report slightly favorable for rates, even though it isn't having a noticeable impact this morning.
Next week brings us plenty that has the potential to affect mortgage rates. Economic data begins Monday morning with the release of May's Existing Home Sales report and continues throughout the week with at least one piece of data set to be posted each day. The more important releases are set for later in the week, including a key inflation reading Friday morning. We also have two semi-annual congressional appearances by Fed Chairman Powell that will draw lots of attention midweek.
On a related note, now that the FOMC meeting is behind us, the Fed's mandatory quiet period has expired. This means Fed members are free to speak about the economy and other relevant topics. There is a large number of speeches scheduled next week that may draw a reaction in the bond market. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org
TGIF, I hope you had a great week!
Last week, U.S. economic news pointed to steady growth but some signs of slowing. Inflation stayed low, with prices rising just 0.1% in May and 2.4% over the past year. Jobless claims rose, hinting that the job market may be cooling. Still, consumer confidence ticked up slightly as prices remained stable and trade tensions with China eased. Treasury yields slipped, and many experts think the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady this month, with possible cuts later this year. Mortgage interest rates dipped slightly for the week.
Next week starts with news from the Middle East possibly moving markets on Monday, followed by a Treasury auction. Key economic reports, including consumer spending, arrive Tuesday and Wednesday before the Fed releases its update Wednesday afternoon. Markets close Thursday for Juneteenth.
Last Updated: 6/13/25
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning's unexpectedly strong economic data erased overnight gains that were fueled by geopolitical events. Stocks are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 588 points and the Nasdaq down 175 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (4.39%), which should cause a slight increase in this morning's mortgage pricing.
Another successful Treasury auction led to modest bond gains yesterday afternoon. The 1:00 PM ET results announcement of the 30-year Bond sale indicated a decent interest in the securities compared to other recent sales. We didn't get a strong enough of a move to have an impact on mortgage pricing, but the fact investors still have an appetite for long-term debt is a technical win for mortgage rates.
This morning's sole relevant economic report was June's preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment reading from the University of Michigan. They announced a reading of 60.5 that was surprisingly higher than the 53.5 that was expected and May's 52.2. The jump in the reading means surveyed consumers felt much better about their own financial situations than they did last month. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because more confident consumers are likely to make large purchases in the immediate future, fueling economic growth. Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
In other news, Israel's overnight attack on Iran is affecting the global markets. It significantly raises the possibility of a regional war that would cause havoc with the markets, particularly oil prices. We are seeing the news negatively affect stocks this morning, but aren't seeing the standard flight to safety that usually shifts funds into the bond market. Nearly everyone is expecting Iran to retaliate soon. How this conflict proceeds will likely become more clear over the weekend.
Next week brings us plenty for the markets to digest. It will start with weekend headlines from the Middle East driving early trading before we get the results of another Treasury auction Monday afternoon. There is a key consumer spending report and a couple of moderately relevant economic releases Tuesday and Wednesday morning ahead of another FOMC meeting results and projections Wednesday afternoon. The financial markets will be closed Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Do you have a question? We can help. Simply fill out the form below and we'll contact you with the answer, with no obligation to you. We guarantee your privacy.