Hello, happy Friday!
Tuesday saw the highest mortgage rates since November 2023 after last week's higher-than-expected inflation data. Financial markets reacted to strong economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting no rate cuts in 2024 and even a small chance of rate hikes, although Fed members don't see hikes as likely unless economic data accelerates significantly.
Next week has plenty of relevant economic reports scheduled that are expected to influence mortgage rates, along with a couple of Treasury auctions. The week begins light with nothing expected to be released Monday. The most important events come during the latter days, including the initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the first quarter and the Fed's preferred inflation reading for March.*
We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans (100% FHA financing); Conventional, FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We can also do non-traditional programs! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 4/19/24
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory, but not enough to erase yesterday's late selling. The major stock indexes are mixed again with the Dow up 199 points and the Nasdaq down 63 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32 (4.61%). However, that weakness during afternoon trading yesterday is going to cause this morning's mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point higher than Thursday's early pricing. If you saw an intraday increase yesterday, you may see no change this morning.
We don't have any relevant economic data scheduled for release today. News that Israel made an attack on Iran last night could have fueled a nice bond rally this morning. It looks as if the markets are waiting to see if the conflict will escalate further or if last night's strike was more of a token move by Israel to save face in the global community. It will be interesting to see what transpires over the weekend.
Next week has plenty of relevant economic reports scheduled that are expected to influence mortgage rates, along with a couple of Treasury auctions. The week begins light with nothing expected to be released Monday. The most important events come during the latter days, including the initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the first quarter and the Fed's preferred inflation reading for March. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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Hi, I hope you have a good weekend!
On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) triggered a swift and sharp surge in mortgage rates. While it didn’t reach exceptionally high levels (as seen in October 2023), it still marked one of the most significant single-day increases. Regardless, it swiftly propelled the average lender to the highest rate levels observed since November 2023. Today, rates have partially rebounded, but overall, we concluded the week with higher rates.
Next week, we can anticipate a flurry of economic events, including crucial reports, a Treasury auction, and the release of the Fed Beige Book. Among these, March’s Retail Sales report stands out as highly significant and will kick off the week’s activities on Monday morning. Additionally, there will be a series of Fed speaking engagements and corporate earnings releases. While we may not experience the same level of volatility in the bond market and mortgage rates as we did this week, there still could be noticeable rate movements, particularly early in the week
Last Updated: 4/12/24
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory following overnight gains and weaker than expected economic news. Early stock selling may also be contributing to this morning's strong open in bonds. The Dow is currently down 280 points while the Nasdaq has lost 160 points. The bond market is up 24/32 (4.45%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point compared to Thursday's early pricing. Volatility throughout the day caused some lenders to issue both an intraday increase and then an improvement later in the day. The net difference in this morning's rates should be lower than Thursday's initial pricing.
Today's sole economic data came from the University of Michigan, who posted their preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment for April at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 77.9 that was a decline from March's 79.4 and lower than expectations. The softer reading means surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations last month than currently. We consider that good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually translates into weaker consumer spending numbers, limiting economic growth.
Next week brings us a handful of economic releases, another Treasury auction and the Fed Beige Book. One of those reports is considered highly important (March's Retail Sales) and it starts the week's activities early Monday morning. There are also plenty of Fed speaking engagements and corporate earnings releases scheduled. We likely won't see nearly as much volatility in the bond market and mortgage rates as we did this week, but there should still be noticeable moves in rates. This is especially true early in the week. Look for details on all of next week's calendar in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
Hello, I hope you’re having a great Friday!
The latest jobs data revealed a surge in new job creation beyond expectations. However, the unemployment rate and wages remained in line with forecasts. While there’s room for debate about the specifics of these new jobs and their impact on economic improvement, the overall effect on interest rates is neutral. Fortunately, rates haven’t been significantly harmed, ending the week with a smaller increase than one would expect. Next week, we anticipate the publication of several critical economic reports, with a particular focus on inflation indicators. Alongside these data releases, we can expect additional Federal Reserve speeches, two Treasury auctions, and the minutes from the previous month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. These events collectively have the potential to significantly impact interest rates.
Last Updated: 4/5/24
Friday's bond market has opened in in negative territory following unfavorable news about the labor market. Stocks are reacting positively to the stronger data, pushing the Dow up 100 points and the Nasdaq up 142 points. The bond market is currently down 13/32 (4.36%) but gains very late in the day yesterday should limit this morning's increase in mortgage rates to approximately .125 of a discount point. Most lenders did not improve pricing before Thursday's close. If you did see an intraday revision, you should see a larger increase this morning.
Today's major economic news was the release of March's Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed 303,000 new jobs were added to the economy during the month, greatly exceeding forecasts of 200,000. The U.S. unemployment rate slipped from February's 3.9% to 3.8%. The stronger payroll number and the fact the unemployment rate moved lower makes the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
The third headline reading we follow is average hourly earnings that showed no surprises. February's 0.1% increase in earnings was changed to up 0.2%, but March's 0.3% monthly and 4.1% year-over-year increases were widely expected. It is mostly the payroll number causing this morning's bond selling with the lower unemployment rate a distant second. The earnings reading hasn't had an impact.
Next week brings us the release of a handful of economic reports, including two highly important inflation readings. In addition to the data and more Fed speeches, there are two Treasury auctions and the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting that also have the potential to cause a noticeable move in rates. The week starts light with nothing of relevance scheduled for Monday, leaving the most important events for midweek. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Happy Good Friday! I hope you have a great day and Easter!
This week was one of the most stable periods of mortgage rates in recent memory; volatility remained remarkably low. Overall, rates were very similar to last Friday's numbers. Next week could be a very different story. There are a large list of economic releases and other events scheduled that are expected to affect mortgage pricing. The week's calendar starts with the highly important Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) March manufacturing index and closes with the almighty monthly Employment report. Between those are a few moderately influential releases and another handful of Fed member speaking engagements. Two of those speeches stand out as potential market movers, both coming midweek.*
Last Updated: 3/29/24
The bond market is closed today for the Good Friday holiday, as are the stock markets. They will reopen for regular trading Monday morning. If lenders are posting new rates this morning, most likely will be using pricing from yesterday afternoon if they issued an intraday increase before the early close in the bond market. Lenders that did not revise rates a little higher late in the day should reflect those losses this morning.
Today did have a fairly significant economic report posted despite the markets being closed. February's Personal Income and Outlays report was released at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.8% jump in spending. The income reading was a bit softer than forecasts, but spending was much higher than predicted. Both readings were expected to show an increase of 0.4%. The smaller rise in income means consumers had less money to spend than thought. However, the bad news is that they spent much more than thought. Accordingly, this portion of the report is mixed with a tilt to negative for mortgage rates.
The more important readings in the report were the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and core PCE indexes. These are what the Fed heavily relies on as an inflation gauge and uses them during their FOMC meetings to determine monetary policy. The overall PCE was expected to have risen 0.4% while the core reading rose 0.3%. Today's report showed both readings rose 0.3%, making them slightly favorable for rates. The year-over-year readings for both matched expectations.
Overall, today's report has favorable and bad news in it. The big jump in consumer spending is a point of concern because that category makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. However, that news can be offset by the weaker than expected overall PCE reading. It certainly doesn't alter predictions for what the Fed may do with monetary policy (rate reduction). This report had the potential to alarm the markets or cause a bond rally, but it doesn't look like we will get either come Monday- at least not from this data.
Next week has a large list of economic releases and other events scheduled that are expected to affect mortgage pricing. The week's calendar starts with the highly important Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) March manufacturing index and closes with the almighty monthly Employment report. Between those are a few moderately influential releases and another handful of Fed member speaking engagements. Two of those speeches stand out as potential market movers, both coming midweek. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Hello, I hope you had a great week.
The Federal Reserve decided to keep the Fed funds rate the same, as expected. But the interesting part is their prediction for the future: they thought about lowering rates three times this year. However, some decision-makers changed their minds compared to December – now they’re saying, “Maybe not as many discounts.” Why? They want more proof that prices (inflation) are behaving before they start making borrowing cheaper. So, in a nutshell: the Fed held steady, but they’re keeping an eye on things. Overall, interest rates reacted positively to the news, ending the week lower. Next week has plenty scheduled to drive bond trading and mortgage rates, but only one report is considered to be able to drastically move the markets and it comes Friday when they will be closed for the Good Friday holiday. The bond market actually closes early Thursday ahead of the holiday. In addition to the economic releases, there are also two moderately influential Treasury auctions and more Fed speaking engagements that may have an impact on bonds. The week's economic calendar starts Monday with the release of February's New Home Sales report, which is more or less the least important report of the week.*
Last Updated: 3/22/24
Friday's bond market has opened well in positive territory as overnight gains and the recent favorable momentum extends into this morning's session. Stocks are much calmer with the Dow down 54 points and the Nasdaq up 11 points. The bond market is currently up 14/32 (4.21%). This should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point if compared to Thursday's early pricing.
The only things we are watching today are the handful of Fed member speeches that are going on. Now that the FOMC meeting is behind us, so is the mandatory two-week quiet period where Fed members were not allowed to speak publicly. Chairman Powell had one early this morning that field to yield any surprises. Market participants will be watching their words, but it is not likely that we will get anything substantive that will affect rates.
Next week has plenty scheduled to drive bond trading and mortgage rates, but only one report is considered to be able to drastically move the markets and it comes Friday when they will be closed for the Good Friday holiday. The bond market actually closes early Thursday ahead of the holiday. In addition to the economic releases, there are also two moderately influential Treasury auctions and more Fed speaking engagements that may have an impact on bonds. The week's economic calendar starts Monday with the release of February's New Home Sales report, which is more or less the least important report of the week. Look for details on it and the rest of the week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
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