August 28th, 2023 1:18 PM by T. Fanning
Hi, I hope you had a great weekend!
Rates have started the week down a tad, finally breaking the streak of weekly increases. Overall, Friday is clearly the most important day of the week due to the importance of the Employment report and ISM manufacturing index. Thursday could be active also if the PCE index within the Personal Income and Outlays report shows a surprise . There is a high probability of it being a volatile week for the markets. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.*
We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans (100% FHA financing); Conventional, FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We can also do non-traditional programs! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 8/28/23
Monday's bond market has opened up slightly with little to drive trading and no major weekend headlines that the markets care about. Stocks are showing early gains with the Dow up 236 points and the Nasdaq up 78 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (4.22%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly compared to Friday's early pricing.
There is nothing of importance scheduled this morning. We do have results of today's 5-year Treasury Note auction that may come into play this afternoon. These sales don't directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sale goes poorly, meaning a weak interest in the securities, we could see broader selling in the bond market after results are announced at 1:00 PM ET. A strong demand from investors would be good news and may lead to a late improvement in mortgage pricing. This process will be repeated tomorrow afternoon when 7-year Notes are sold.
The rest of the week brings us the release of six monthly and quarterly economic reports that have the potential to influence mortgage rates, some of which are considered highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. The most influential releases are scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for August at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures consumer sentiment about their own financial and employment situations, giving us an idea about consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their finances, they are more apt to spend money. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data is watched closely. A noticeable decline in confidence would indicate that surveyed consumers probably will not make a large purchase in the immediate future. The index is expected to come in at 116.5, which would be a decline from July's 117.0. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing.
Overall, Friday is clearly the most important day of the week due to the importance of the Employment report and ISM manufacturing index. Thursday could be active also if the PCE index within the Personal Income and Outlays report shows a surprise . There is a high probability of it being a volatile week for the markets. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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