August 5th, 2022 10:22 AM by T. Fanning
Hello, I hope you’re having a good Friday.
The end of the week hasn’t been kind to rates, killing the downward trend. Next week does not have a high number of economic reports scheduled, but the list includes two highly influential inflation indexes. We also have two Treasury auctions that are likely to affect rates during afternoon trading midweek. Monday has nothing scheduled that we need to be concerned with, meaning we can expect weekend headlines to be the cause if there is a noticeable move in rates to start the week.*
We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans; FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Non-QM (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 8/5/22
Friday's bond market has opened sharply lower following the release of surprisingly strong economic data. Stocks are curiously reacting negatively to the data with the Dow down 95 points and the Nasdaq down 124 points. The bond market is in a freefall during early trading, currently down 37/32 (2.82%). This should cause an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of over .125 of a percent in RATE instead of discount point.
Today's big economic release was July's Employment report at 8:30 AM ET, giving us little that can be considered good news for rates. It revealed that the U.S. unemployment rate slipped 0.1% to 3.5% last month while a whopping 528,000 new jobs were added to the economy. Forecasts were calling for an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.6% and only 250,000 new payrolls. There were also relatively minor upward revisions to June and May's payrolls.
Average earnings, which bonds are extremely sensitive to, didn't help matters either. Today's report showed a 0.5% rise when they were predicted to rise only 0.3%. The higher wages fuel inflation as workers now have more money to spend and businesses often raise the costs of their goods and services to cover the higher pay.
The surprisingly resilient employment sector is going to allow the Fed to be more aggressive with raising key short-term interest rates to slow the economy and bring inflation down. This is likely the reason for the negative reaction in stocks today. Stronger economic data tends to fuel stock gains, but in this case, the Fed's ability to be aggressive with monetary policy may restrict future corporate earnings. It is important to remember though, the Fed's actions now are going to help bring down mortgage rates in the future.
Next week does not have a high number of economic reports scheduled, but the list includes two highly influential inflation indexes. We also have two Treasury auctions that are likely to affect rates during afternoon trading midweek. Monday has nothing scheduled that we need to be concerned with, meaning we can expect weekend headlines to be the cause if there is a noticeable move in rates to start the week.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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FL Company License: MBR4416 | FL License: LO89221
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