September 15th, 2023 2:51 PM by T. Fanning
I hope you’re having a great Friday!
Rates were fairly quiet this week, ending up a tick. Inflation numbers released earlier this week were fairly close to where the market was expecting, so there were no surprises to spook interest rates. Next week has several highly important events taking place. Next week brings us little in terms of relevant economic data for the markets to digest, but we do have a highly important FOMC meeting taking place midweek. This meeting also includes revised economic projections from the Fed and a post-meeting press conference. The week starts light with nothing of importance set for Monday, meaning we can expect weekend headlines to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing that day. In addition to the FOMC meeting and related events, there are a couple of economic reports (mostly housing) and a Treasury auction scheduled.*
We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans (100% FHA financing); Conventional, FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We can also do non-traditional programs! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 9/15/23
Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic data and stronger economic news from overseas, particularly China. Stocks are also showing early losses with the Dow down 101 points and the Nasdaq down 144 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32 (4.30%), which should push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point higher, partly due to weakness during afternoon trading yesterday. If you saw an upward revision before closing yesterday, you should see a smaller increase this morning.
The first of this morning's two moderately important economic releases was August's Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. It revealed a 0.4% increase in production at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, exceeding forecasts of up 0.2%. The stronger output hints at strength in the manufacturing sector, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing.
September's preliminary Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan came in at 67.7. Forecasts showed 69.4 that was much closer to August's final reading. The unexpected decline means surveyed consumers felt better about their personal financial and employment situations last month than they do this month. Waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending numbers and restricts economic growth. Accordingly, we can label this report good news for mortgage rates.
Next week brings us little in terms of relevant economic data for the markets to digest, but we do have a highly important FOMC meeting taking place midweek. This meeting also includes revised economic projections from the Fed and a post-meeting press conference. The week starts light with nothing of importance set for Monday, meaning we can expect weekend headlines to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing that day. In addition to the FOMC meeting and related events, there are a couple of economic reports (mostly housing) and a Treasury auction scheduled. Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.*
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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