October 25th, 2024 1:28 PM by T. Fanning
Hello, wishing you a productive and pleasant Friday. Enjoy your weekend!
Mortgage rates peaked on Wednesday due to market volatility. Ending the week, rates increased anywhere from .25%-.375%. Next week's jobs report, the election, and the Fed announcement could bring significant changes.
Next week is packed with major economic releases impacting mortgage rates. It kicks off with a Treasury auction on Monday, then heats up with key reports like the 3rd Quarter GDP, the Fed's inflation index on Thursday, and the ISM manufacturing index plus the Employment report on Friday. Definitely an active week for financial and mortgage markets.
We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans (100% FHA financing); Conventional 0% down; Conventional, FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We can also do non-traditional programs! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms
Last Updated: 10/25/24
Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite unfavorable economic headlines. Stocks are rallying on the same data and some key earnings releases, pushing the Dow up 196 points and the Nasdaq up 228 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (4.19%), which should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly if compared to Thursday's early pricing.
September's Durable Goods Orders report was released early this morning, giving us mixed results. It showed new orders for products such as airplanes, appliances and electronics fell 0.8%, matching forecasts. However, a sizable downward revision to August's orders actually makes September's decline more relevant. The bad news came in a secondary reading that excludes the volatile and more costly transportation-related orders, like airplanes and such. That reading rose 0.4% when it was expected to slip 0.1%.
The University of Michigan announced their revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for October as 70.5. This was higher than the initial estimate of 68.9 from two weeks ago and stronger than expectations. The increase means surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial situations than many had thought. Since higher levels of confidence usually translate into strong consumer spending numbers that fuel economic growth, this was bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.
We are seeing some resistance to bond yields in their current range. This is shown in the muted response to unfavorable economic data and early bond gains over the past two days. Once the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield hit its late-July high of 4.24%, both domestic and international buyers stepped in to keep it from breaking that level. If 4.24% is indeed a resistance level for traders, that means seeing mortgage rates move noticeably higher is much less likely than seeing a downward move. Unless something unexpected happens, mortgage rates should remain fairly calm with a possible downward trend over the next few days- at least until we get to the highly important data coming late next week.
Next week is extremely busy in terms of scheduled economic releases and other events that may influence mortgage rates. It starts relatively light with just a Treasury auction Monday that may come into play during afternoon hours but gets quite active as the week progresses. There are three highly influential economic reports set to be posted over the last two days. Some of the major reports listed are the initial 3rd Quarter GDP numbers and the Fed's preferred inflation index Thursday and the traditional new month reports (ISM manufacturing index and monthly Employment report) Friday morning. There is little doubt that it will be an extremely active week for the financial and mortgage markets. Look for details on all of the relevant activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....
Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...
This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
*https://www.homeloanmortgageco.com/DailyRateLockAdvisory
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