December 18th, 2020 12:30 PM by T. Fanning
Last Updated: 12/18/20Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic data and early stock losses. The Dow is currently down 90 points while the Nasdaq has lost 19 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (0.92%), but weakness late yesterday is going to keep this morning's mortgage rates close to Thursday's early pricing.Today's sole economic release was November's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board, which is a New York-based business research group and not a governmental agency, announced a 0.6% rise in their LEI. This was a bit stronger than expected, hinting at stronger economic activity. Fortunately, this report does not carry a high level of significance, preventing a negative impact on this morning's rates.Another stimulus package agreement still eludes Congress as of this morning, meaning they will need to pass another short-term funding bill to keep the federal government open past tonight's deadline. I believe we could see an agreement possibly come this weekend. However, it wouldn't affect mortgage rates until Monday morning. Generally speaking, another round of stimulus for citizens and businesses should cause a positive reaction in stocks and a negative move in bonds that would likely lead to an increase in mortgage rates. Just how much of an increase depends on the size of the package and what it includes. We shouldn't be surprised that more stimulus is coming at this point, but it is safe to assume that we will get some type of knee-jerk reaction once an agreement is reached.Next week has a fairly large number of relevant economic releases scheduled that the markets will be watching. It will be a holiday-shortened week with the bond market closing early Thursday afternoon and closed for the Christmas Day holiday Friday. The stock markets will also close early Thursday and reopen the following Monday morning. None of the week's reports are set for Monday, meaning the markets will have plenty to digest over less than three trading days (with exception to a possible weekend stimulus agreement). Look for details on all of next week's activities in Sunday evening's weekly preview.If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...Lock if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.**http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
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