The Home Loan Mortgage Blog

Weekly Update - 12/24/21

December 24th, 2021 5:11 PM by T. Fanning

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Merry Christmas Eve! I hope you have a great Holiday!

 

Other than the Jumbo 30-year fixed program, rates ended the week higher. Closing out this week's calendar was the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December at 10:00 AM ET. This consumer confidence index came in at 70.6, up slightly from the initial reading of 70.4 from two weeks ago. The small revision is not enough to draw much attention, preventing it from having an impact on today's mortgage pricing. The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow's recognition of the Christmas Day holiday. Stocks will trade for a full day today, but will be closed tomorrow along with the bond and other financial markets. All will reopen Monday for regular trading.*

 

We offer Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, Jumbo and regular construction financing. Some of our niches include: Chenoa Fund loans; FHA and VA 1x Close Construction-Perm; 1.50% Down FHA Advantage Program; CHFA Financing; HomeStyle renovation program; and a Jumbo, 5% down program. We also can do hobby farms, Ag properties and Alt-A (stated income, verified assets for self-employed borrowers)! To see a detailed list of programs, visit our website: www.homeloanmortgageco.com/mortgageprograms

 

As always, please let me know if I can help you, your friends/family/potential buyers/borrowers!


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Last Updated: 12/23/21

 

Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory following mixed economic news and thin trading ahead of the holiday. Stocks are showing gains of 199 points in the Dow and 46 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (1.49%), but gains late yesterday should keep this morning's mortgage rates fairly close to Wednesday's early levels.

 

Today's batch of economic releases started with last week's unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET that showed 205,000 new claims for benefits were made last week. This was unchanged from the previous week's revised total and nearly pegged forecasts. The lack of a surprise number and the fact this is just a weekly update allows us to consider the data neutral for mortgage rates.

 

November's Personal Income and Outlays data was also posted at 8:30 AM this morning. It revealed that personal income rose 0.4% while spending increased 0.6%. The income reading was slightly lower than expectations of 0.5%, meaning consumers had less money to spend than thought. However, the more important spending reading matched predictions. The third headline number in this report is the core PCE index that the Fed relies on as an indicator of true inflation. The month over month reading came in at up 0.5%, higher than the 0.4% that analysts were expecting. Furthermore, the year over year increase also exceeded forecasts, hinting that inflation in the economy is a bit stronger than many had thought. The mixed readings cause us to label the report slightly negative for mortgage rates.

 

The final early morning release was November's Durable Goods Orders report that revealed new orders at U.S. factories for big-tickets products rose 2.5% last month, beating predictions of a 1.5% jump. Even a secondary reading that excludes more volatile and costly airplane and other related orders came in a little higher than expected. While this was a sizable variance from forecasts and shows manufacturing sector strength, it is not nearly as relevant in this report as it would be in many other releases. This is because this data is known to be extremely volatile from month to month, so large swings are common.

 

New Home Sales data for November was posted at 10:00 AM ET, giving us a small sign of housing sector strength. The Commerce Department announced a 12.4% jump in sales of newly constructed homes. While that sounds like a bad report for bonds and mortgage rates, the spike is actually a result of a significant downward revision to October's sales. The number of sales in November was noticeably lower than what was forecasted before the correction to October's sales. That allows us to consider the report to be favorable for mortgage rates. Unfortunately, it tracks only a small portion of all home sales and does not carry much significance.

 

Closing out this week's calendar was the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December at 10:00 AM ET. This consumer confidence index came in at 70.6, up slightly from the initial reading of 70.4 from two weeks ago. The small revision is not enough to draw much attention, preventing it from having an impact on today's mortgage pricing.


The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of tomorrow's recognition of the Christmas Day holiday. Stocks will trade for a full day today, but will be closed tomorrow along with the bond and other financial markets. All will reopen Monday for regular trading. Accordingly, there will be no update to this report tomorrow, but we will address next week's light schedule in Sunday evening's weekly preview.

 

We would like to wish you and yours a wonderful and safe holiday!

 

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would....


Lock if my closing were taking place within 7 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 8 and 20 days...
Float if my closing were taking place between 21 and 60 days...
Float if my closing were taking place over 60 days from now...


This is only my opinion of what I would do if I was financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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*http://www.hlmcolorado.com/DailyRateAdvisory
            

Company NMLS ID: 479289 | LO NMLS: 208694

CO License: 100008854

FL Company License: MBR4416 | FL License: LO89221

 

Regulated by the Colorado Division of Real Estate

www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org

Posted by T. Fanning on December 24th, 2021 5:11 PM

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