April 3rd, 2026 6:59 PM by T. Fanning
Happy Good Friday! I hope you have a great day and Easter!
Oil prices were the main driver of the market, and some hope that Middle East tensions could ease helped bonds a bit. Strong economic data kept rates from dropping too much, but this week's decrease made a small dent in the last few week's upward trend. The job market was strong, with 178,000 new jobs in March—much higher than the 60,000 expected—partly from last month’s weather- and strike-related losses returning. Unemployment fell to 4.3%, and wage growth slowed slightly. Manufacturing is picking up, hitting its highest level since 2022, likely helped by higher tariffs, and consumer spending stayed solid, with retail sales up 0.6% in February, showing the economy is still holding up well.
Looking ahead, the focus will stay on the conflict in the Middle East, since that can quickly impact markets. Investors will also be watching what Fed officials say about future rate decisions. On the economic side, the ISM services report comes out Monday—it measures how businesses like restaurants, healthcare, and banking are doing, and anything above 50 means that part of the economy is growing. Later in the week, we’ll get two key inflation reports because of delays from the government shutdown—the PCE index on Thursday, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and tracks how prices change for goods and services people buy, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, which looks at the cost of everyday items like food, gas, and housing. These reports should give a clearer picture of where inflation is headed.
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